2021 big prediction: six major trends in power battery

This article points:

2021 movement battery six trend:

1: The energy density of the battery is improved, the cost is lowered, and the lithium phosphate battery will continue to rise.

2: Head battery companies continue to expand, production capacity release acceleration

3: Frontier technology products landing, silicon supplement, solid state battery concept

4: Second-line battery companies usher in opportunities

5: The shortage problem of the supply chain of the power battery supply chain is highlighted

6: The development of the exchange system, driving battery asset management company

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As the core component of the new energy vehicle, the cost of power battery, technology, production capacity, etc. are huge for the industry.

“Electric Vehicle Observer” combines the relevant information disclosed by the market, data, and the company, and predict the power battery industry in the next year, and summarizes the past year, with the forecast.


Power battery six predictions

Predict 1

The energy density of the battery is increased, the cost is lowered,

Lithium iron phosphate battery installed continues to rise

As the production scale continues to expand, the cost of power battery is expected to continue.

The energy density of ferric phosphate is still potential. A few days ago, the National High-Teacher released 210WH / kg lithium iron phosphate battery, and its goal this year is 230Wh / kg.

210WH / kg lithium iron phosphate battery released by Ken Xuan

The energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries will lead to increased vehicle enterprise acceptance. In the second half of 2020, Tesra Model 3 has begun to carry lithium iron phosphate batteries, producing obvious demonstrations, late volkswagen, and officers and other car companies are also likely to launch a lithium iron phosphate model, market share is expected to further improve.

From the air volume, 2020 phosphate passenger is 7.08GWH, and this data is only 1.75GWH in 2019, an increase of more than 2 times.

From the model, the 2020 roughly 44 passenger cars use a lithium iron phosphate battery. In 2019, this data is only 27.

However, there is more severe winter battery life in the phosphate battery, perhaps to a certain extent, to reduce the high-speed growth of lithium iron phosphate battery installed, but the trend of the model should continue.

Predict 2

Head battery companies continue to expand,

Production release acceleration

In the short term, since the New Energy Automobile Market is high in the second half of last year, the overall industry has a good trend, and the head battery company is basically full of production. At present, new energy vehicles in all car companies are accelerating, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 are steady-state high-speed growth.

In a medium and long term, the world’s major car companies have made a 5-10 planning of new energy vehicles, and the power battery demand will face blowout. Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Haoke, China Aviation Lithium Electric, Fu Can Technology, Honeycomb Energy and other enterprises are undergoing large-scale expansion to address demand pressure.

Some battery companies in 2020

Source: Internet

Predict 3

Silicon supplement, solid state battery concept products increase

At present, the silicon base negative is mainly used for cylindrical digital, a small amount of soft bag digital and cylindrical power cells. In terms of vehicle, the lithium battery supplied by Panasonic to Tesla is a silicon-based negative electrode.

With the increase in energy density of lithium ion battery, the negative electrode material gauge also needs to grow accordingly. The Phosphate 210WH / kg lithium iron phosphate battery is the new phosphate positive material and silicon negative material, and pre-lithiated.

Tianmu pilot nano-silicon negative electrode is also reported by CCTV news, the application process of silicon negative material is accelerating.

On January 13, the intellectual electric vehicle also adopted silicon-donate supplement techniques, and the single energy density can be 300Wh / kg.

In addition, it will be more and more, which is a large-scale battery model, which is planned, and it has planned a solid-state battery model. Although the probability of the current planning model is a semi-solid battery, theoretically, security will have a significant improvement.

Predict 4

Second-line battery companies ushered in opportunities

Volkswagen and Guoxuan cooperation, Fu Can cooperate with Daimler, hive and PSA cooperation, Wanjin one or two three and public cooperation, Yiqi Lithium can get Huacao Bao Ma Ding point, etc., domestic battery companies and international car companies have begun to enter Floor phase.

According to the agreement, Fu Can began supplying Daimler in 2021, and the supply scale is 140GWH.

In addition, domestic battery companies have also begun to expand overseas markets, many enterprises build overseas production bases, but because of the epidemic, overseas expansion may be slowed down.

Predict 5

The shortage of upstream materials is highlighted

Since January 2021, domestic battery-level carbonate has a continuous increase, and the current quotation is generally concentrated in 62,000 -67,000 yuan / ton. The latest news showed that domestic traders reported on the high price of 80,000 yuan / ton on the battery-grade carbonate on January 19th, raised by 170,000 yuan / ton of offer from 63,000 yuan / ton of January 14th. The increase of up to 21.2%, January is over 40% over the previous month.

There are not many actual capacity and new production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the relationship between the global market supply and demand is tight, and the lithium hexafluorophosphate after New Year’s Day has exceeded 100,000 mark.

Copper foil leading enterprise 6UM capacity supply is in short supply, and it is expected that the price will continue to maintain a high level this year.

Predict 6

Change system development,

Promote battery asset management company

In August last year, the car officially released battery rental service BaaS (Battery as a service), which provides electricity separation, battery rental, and can be exchangeable. Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Guotai Junan International Holdings Co., Ltd. and Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd. jointly invested in the establishment of Wuhan Weiyuan Battery Assets Co., Ltd. Which car is planning to cooperate with several battery packs, including Ningde Times, Huading, and launch the electricity separation mode, and the project is scheduled to be “battery bank.” In the electrical separation mode, when the owner is purchasing an electric car, you can use the battery without the purchase of a battery, and use the vehicle.

The exchange of electricity, an OSCE, is also exploring the BAAS (battery, service) mode and the battery ladder utilization value.

With the growth of the change in electric tram, future battery banks will become a new type.


Six features of the 20020 movement battery


In the second half of the year, the phosphate battery market accounts for rapid improvement.

In the first half of last year, the market of lithium iron phosphate accounted for a whole than the same period last year, but from the second half of the year, the market share increased. Lithium iron phosphate batteries in front of the market is mainly in the commercial vehicle field. However, in September last year, the amount of lithium iron phosphate passed the car loaded machine has grown sharply, and Tesla is equipped with the lithium iron phosphate battery in Ningde, leading to a significant increase in overall market share.

From January to December 2020, the amount of lithium iron phosphate battery was 22.39 gWh, which increased by 12.7% year-on-year. In addition, the market share of the phosphate battery in the whole year is also slightly improved, and 32% in 2019 is raised to 35%.

Source: Certificate of Factory


The proportion of cylindrical batteries has a more obvious improvement

This is mainly due to the Chemical cylindrical battery used by Tesra.

However, the soft bag battery share is expected to increase. Last year, the public invested 1.1 billion euros to receive 26.47% of Guoxuan’s high-tech, became the first shareholder; Daimler received a $ 900 million strategic investment Fu Can technology participated in its Banguangban IPO; 10,000 wording Reported to receive Volkswage billion yuan power battery order; Yip Lithium can also receive a fixed-point letter of BMW power battery supplier, etc., these enterprises will use a soft bag battery.

Source: Certificate of Factory

Three featured

New forces battery companies emerge

The ranking of the emerging battery enterprise market represented by Ruip and Hive is rapidly rising. In particular, the amount of Ruipu installed is often climbed to the top 5, and the total annual volume is ranked eighth, which is directly related to its supported best-selling model Baojun series.

The hive rely on the Great Wall to enter the top 10.

Source: Certificate of Factory

New companies represented by honeycomb, because there is no capacity, ideological burdens, for new technology acceptance and research and development speeds to raise new technologies such as cobalt, four-yuan batteries.

Solid state battery companies, Qing Tao, Hui Neng, Wei Blue and other enterprises, 2020 financing, and the progress of cooperation is also very fast. Capital emphasizes the degree of importance of solid-state batteries and is put into input.

For example, Qingtao has conducted e-wheel financing in 2020, and the investor has a car company in SAIC and Guangqi; Hui Can also conduct D-round financing, financing nearly billion US dollars, and investors have FAW and soft silver.


LG chemical market accounts for great improvement

In 2020, the LG chemical installed capacity was 7.65 gWh, which was only 6.3mWh last year, an increase of 12,1347% year-on-year.

The 2020 foreign battery company installed capacity was 7.96 GWH. In 2019, this data was 234.5mWh, a year-on-year increase of 32 times.

LG chemical market proportional improvements mainly rely on the supporting of Tesra Model 3. Other foreign companies, such as SKI, relying on the supporting of the pole αt; Panasonic mainly relying on the supporting of Tesla and Japanese cars.

In 2020, SKI achieved supporting, but Samsung did not implement the installation.

Features five

Ningde Times Foreign investment involves more fields

Rough statistics, 2020 Ningde Times investment projects, more than 16 power batteries, intelligent manufacturing, automatic driving, travel, semiconductors, etc.

Typically, with the establishment of battery asset companies, with the new energy investment in Baicheng New Energy Investment, with the field of intelligent manufacturing equipment in the anneaver.

In addition, at the end of last year, I also came out of the enjoyment of the enjoys on Ali’s joint investment in SAIC and involved in the field of travel.

2020 partial foreign investment situation in Ningde Times

Source: Internet


Battery business concentration further improve

In 2020, it realizes the supporting electrical core manufacturer for 73; 79 in 2019, this number is 110 in 2018, and the number of supporting companies has greatly reduced.

At the same time, the concentration of the installed capacity is also increased. The 2020 TOP20 installed volume is 98.2%, and this is 96.2% in 2019.

2020 movement battery installed (MWH)

Source: Certificate of Factory

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