Global Electric Automotive Outlook 2021: 2030 EV penetration is 7% -12%

After ten years of rapid growth, by the end of 2020, 10 million electric vehicles have been on the global road. In 2020, although the global car sales fell by 6% because new crops, electric car registrations still increased by 41%. A total of approximately 3 million electric vehicles (4.6% sales) were sold worldwide, and Europe’s first exceeded China’s largest electric steam market. Not only that, the registration of electric bus and electric truck has increased in major markets, and global stocks reached 600,000 and 31,000.

In the face of new crown, the recovery of electric vehicles is dependent on three main pillars.

– Supported regulatory framework: Many countries are strengthening critical policies such as carbon dioxide emissions standards and zero emission vehicles (ZEV). By the end of 2020, more than 20 countries have announced that they have banned traditional vehicles, or stipulate that all newly sold vehicles must be zero emissions.

– Additional incentive measures to ensure that the sales of electric vehicles are not affected by the economic downturn: Some European countries have added incentive measures, China has postponed the cancellation plan.

– The number of electric vehicle models is expanded, and the battery cost is continued.

Automotive manufacturers announced ambitious electrification plan. In the top 20 automotive manufacturers in the 2020 new car registration, 18 have shown that they have planned to expand their model combinations, and quickly expand the production scale of light electric vehicles. The supply of electric heavy cars is also expanded, and the four major truck manufacturers say that they will implement allocation in the future.

Expenditures in consumers purchased electric vehicles increased to $ 120 billion in 2020. At the same time, the government around the world spends $ 14 billion to support the sales of electric vehicles, which has increased by 25% from 2019, mainly from more powerful incentives from Europe. Despite this, in the past five years, the share of government incentives in electric vehicles has declined, which indicates that electric vehicles have become more and more attractive to consumers.

The recent prospect of electric vehicle sales is bright. In the first quarter of 2021, compared with the same period of 2020, the sales of global electric vehicles increased by about 140%, of which China’s sales were approximately 500,000 units, and Europe is approximately 450,000 units. Compared with the first quarter of 2020, the US sales increased more than double, although the base is much lower.

In 2020, electric vehicles will become more common scenery on the world.

Exotic policies around the world have shown that in this decade, the growth of electric vehicles is healthy: in the established policy scenario, all models of electric vehicle stocks (except two-wheeled / tricycle) reach 145 million in 2030, accounting for roads 7% of the total number of vehicles.

If the government accelerates efforts to achieve climate objectives, the electric car market may increase. In sustainable development scenarios, the global electric fleet reached 23 million (excluding two-wheeled / tricycle) in 2030, with a deposit of 12%.

Constantly expanding electric vehicles will continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on wheels, which will increase over time with respect to time, depending on the speed of power generation. In 2030, under the established policy scenario, the global electric vehicle team reduced more than one-third of greenhouse gas emissions than the same internal combustion engine car team; this level rose to two-thirds under the sustainable development scenario.

Policy needs to use momentum to further speed up the electrification process

Even if it has been successful in electric vehicle deployment, it is a difficult challenge to meet the trajectory consistent with climate goals. This requires all countries to have greater determination and action. The advancement of battery technology and large-scale manufacturing will continue to promote the cost of the electric vehicle.

However, in the 1920s, it is necessary to see more than just the large-scale adoption of electric light vehicles to achieve climate objectives. Governments also need to develop policies to promote zero emission vehicles in medium and heavy vehicle and corresponding fast charging infrastructure.

In the short term, countries can continue to implement, implement and tighten measures, such as carbon dioxide and fuel economy standards and electric vehicles authorization. Taxation of gasoline and diesel to reflect its impact on environmental and human health, providing government revenue, reducing its negative impact, and accelerating transition to electric vehicles. Different taxes reflect their environmental performance vehicles and fuel can be further enabled by the market and electric vehicles.

In order to make the electric vehicle to make the potential to reduce carbon emissions, it is necessary to integrate electric vehicles into electricity systems, build charging infrastructure and advance sustainable battery manufacturing and its recovery.

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