In February 2004, Elon Masc entered the Testli of $ 6.3 million, and rarely someone in the world would believe that this electric car will have a scene of this day. 8 years later, Tesla’s first massage-level vehicle produced Model S offline, at that time, there were still less than 8 USD / share of Tesla, which can lead under a “arrogant” CEO. The peak of $ 800 billion in the next few years.
Before 2014, in the field of mobile phone, Huawei also labeled “China Cool” label. In the next few years, Yu Chengdong, every “mouth-out”, preaching Huawei mobile phone star, more applause, more applause. Until 5 years later, when Huawei became the world’s second largest smartphone brand, the public was reached with his prejudice prejudice.
In February 2021, the ideal car (NASDAQ: Li), which is “from 0 to 1”, is realized, the sales, R & D, users and financial data presenting, R & D, users and financial data in 2020Q4, and the second strategic cycle Officially turned on. At the beginning of the new cycle, most investors and the public have the ideal new strategic goals – 20% of the Chinese smart electric vehicles get more than 20% of the market share, becoming a recognized head company – the same letter will be suspicious, even good high A sense of view.
There is an old saying in China: “Releasten to it, it is”; “The global technology industry also has a repree development law in the last 10 years:” Soft and hard integration positive feedback spirals “- encensed La and Huawei, or the ideal, “high-tightening” strategic thinking, substantially echoing of the two philosophy and methodology.
In fact, I will enter the Ideal Ideal Phase Ideal Phase Ideal Phase Ideal in the Development of Intelligent Manufacturing Industry Development, we can have clear expectations and grasp of each node trajectory in the next five-year evolution path:
Li Xi is trying to introduce “first principle” to the ideal car “from 1 to 10” second strategic development cycle, based on the current situation of the global electric vehicle industry, the long-term implementation and intend to combine the main potential of the electric vehicle industry in the next five years “Maximum Key” – can also be called the optimal path, and will traction, guided the ideal automobile front and target implementation.
Restoring to the viewing angle, Li We wants to go to the right game …
From 1 to 10, what is ideal? It gives various numbers in the strategic target guidelines. But closer to essential answers is also: build a “soft hard integration positive feedback hard system” to drive this electric car company index spiral rise and development. Such a business model is both the core competitiveness of the advanced productivity of the intelligent economy, and is also a “shortest key” that unlocks the general trend of electric vehicle industry in the next five years.
Understand the “shortest key” meaning, the premise is to understand the development rules of the electric vehicle industry and grasp the current native.
Cross the fog, the next 5-10 years, the leading electric vehicle industry competition is a flat coordinate axis, two of which have two decisive variables are:
◆ Horizontal axis: scale. It is mainly reflected in the delivery volume, which is an inevitable continuation of the basic laws of the automotive industry in the past 100 years.
In the previous study of Tesla, the latest explosive model model, we have clearly proposed:
1. The “True Fragrance Law” of the consumer goods escape does not have price gravitation;
2. You must say new things, but it is definitely the old;
3. The “Trying Wave” of the electric vehicle may be touched by the ceiling.
Take Model Y, from the 21st Century Global Manufacturing and Automotive Industry Chain Center – China Market – MODEL 3 start, then go to Model Y to surface, Tesla uses 18 months, repeat Ford T-cars staged in 1908: Use a lower price to make more advanced models, as a utility tool, penetrate into a wider consumer group.
The price drop drive sales growth, sales growth drive prices continue to decline, today’s electric car companies only continue to go deep into this positive feedback, and can finally win in the chaos of the group.
Figure 1: Formation of 4 major symbolic brands in the automotive industry in the past 100 years, no built on maximum scale delivery. Source: Dongwu Securities
◆ Longitudinal axis: Technology intensity. It is mainly reflected in the intelligent and ultimate target automatic driving, and also includes the technical breakthrough of core components such as solid batteries.
In the previous automatic driving series research, we have also contributed to: smart car = electric + automatic driving + smart cockpit. In the smart car age, the technical barrier with deep learning, machine vision, special chip, end cloud communications, solid state batteries, etc. are extremely high. It is necessary to become a industrial head, from soft to hard, there is no short board, so finally The destined will be a few. Vehicle companies that do not have technology capabilities – no matter whether traditional car companies are still new forces, most of them will be closed, bankrupt, have merged or converted to an album.
Figure 2: Car intelligent has a very high technical threshold. Source: McKinsey “Auto Software and Electronics 2030”
More importantly, the horizontal and vane shaft need to be feedback to each other, which is an exponential spiral rise. Typical case is Apple mobile phone and iOS system, Huawei mobile phone and 5G / chip, etc., and a spiral index synergistic development case such as Tesla Electric Vehicle and Energy / Automatic Driving Technology.
For electric vehicles, in the next 5-10 years, the leading core competitiveness is built in the next 5-10, it is necessary to extend at both ends of the cross-sectional end – this is the first principle of the competition in the electric vehicle industry, and unlocking intelligence The mini-short keying of the electric car is also the bottom logic of the second strategic cycle development target for the ideal car (or even the entire Chinese electric vehicle industry). If such an elaboration is still abstract, we can more specific instructions: as an example of automatic driving.
Automatic driving implementation, with current theory and practice, depending on the systemic synergy of three dimensions of the perception layer, decision layer and execution. The most basic requirements for supporting this systemic technology index type are: the technical research and development investment in engineers and advanced hardware as the core, as well as real-time road data feedback from millions of kilometers of basic units in size vehicles. –Both are indispensable.
In other words, only engineers, there is no regular vehicle delivery, and an electric vehicle company is difficult to implement leading in automatic driving technology.
Combining the ideal second phase strategic objectives, the essence has fully reflected the secret thinking of Li Xi and the ideal car for automatic driving “shortest path” – this is why it is on a scale (2025 more than 20% of China’s intelligent electric vehicle Share, annual delivery of 33,000 to 1.6 million) considerations so heavy nuclear reasons. For the ultimate, it will become a “soft hard integration” electric vehicle company, or a high-intensity mixed intelligence company, the ideal substance has given its own expectation and path.
Figure 3: Strongest hard and hard intelligent smart car Optimus, Source: Network
Hard core system
Cast the shortest keyword, the premise is to build a hard system. This is also a framework for specific deconstruction of ideal automobile second strategic cycle development goals.
With Huawei, Tesla refers to the reference, we can simply extract the concept of hardcore system: the traction of the high goals, the skill of the technology, and the mixed intelligence platform established on the basis of soft hard integration.
How to build a hard core with core competitiveness, ideal given a clear guideline in the second phase strategic goal.
1) Traction of a long target
If the company does not establish a far target and is oriented, it is impossible to make customers / consumers to build strong trusts, and they cannot make employees have enough struggle and carry forward the spirit of the beginning of the earth.
In 1994, Ren Zhengfu proposed a 10-year trier who thought of “10 years later, the world communication industry three points, Huawei will take one point”, no one believes that the day will be realized. At that time, Huawei and IBM, Lucent (predecessor dating back to Bell Lab) were found to be better than that in 2004, China did not achieve promise.
But it is because of the traction of the awesome goals, now Huawei is already an absolute leader in the industry. In 2020, Huawei revenue $ 136.7 billion, IBM is $ 73.6 billion. In 2019, Huawei revenue was twice as much as the four major communication vendors (ZTE, Nokia, Ericsson) twice.
Among them, when Huawei’s goal Lucent, 2006 for competing stress and French company Alcatel merger, 2016, the merged company is entirely acquired by Nokia, while Nokia, Ericsson and ZTE added it is not as good as Huawei, this is a far-effective goal. And there is no difference in the goal.
Figure 4: Ren Zhengfai, Source: Network
Looking at Mask, his grand vision narrative model is colonial Mars, so no matter how difficult it is Tesla and Spacex cash flow, he can motivate the world’s top risk funds or investrs to renew – funding The era of this big water is not, entrepreneurs with far goals are the most scarce resources.
Figure 5: Masque, Source: Network
“The Analects” has a cloud: “Releasten to it, it is related to it; inexpension, it is underestimated; That is to say, the goal is higher, in order to achieve the results you satisfied. The strategic thinking of Mask and Li Xiwei is all in this philosophy.
Ideal Car 2025 strategic objectives mentioned: “20% market share became China’s first intelligent electric car company. We only have more than 20% of the market share of China’s smart electric vehicle in 2025, becoming a recognized head Enterprise, we have enough talent, technology and funds for reserves, participation in the more fierce global market competition in 2030 “- Ideally released a long target in 2021, the new model empty window, to condense the company Internal and external resources, it is important to break through the existing level.
2) Belief to technology
Ideally did not eat the old book because of the success of the old, lying in the business model – this is a common problem after some business success – but is ready to strengthen R & D investment:
At the beginning of February 2020, the new R & D center was announced in Shanghai, which is committed to the frontier development of intelligent electric vehicle technology, including high voltage platform and ultra-fast charge technology, automatic driving technology, and next-generation smart cockpit technology, operating system and computing platform. The Shanghai R & D Center will have a complete research and development capability of a new model. The R & D center has begun to recruit talents and is expected to over 2,000 in the future.
By the end of 2020, Ideal Beijing R & D Center has 1300 R & D staff, adding 2,000 R & D centers in Shanghai, in addition to strengthening the development of cutting-edge technology, more realistic significance is to engage in two R & D centers to quickly and more products, faster Technique meets consumer needs. There is no belief in the technology, and there is no such actions. Ideal Q4 call, some key information is not easy to miss:
CTO Wang Kai: The Shanghai R & D Center will compare more models in accordance with the Beijing R & D center, and undertake more models. About the ADAS team, now we have a total of more than 300 engineers. As of the end of this year, we will expand this team to more than 600 people.
CFO Li Tie: This year, our R & D expenses will further increase, reaching at least 3 billion yuan. With more and more investment in automatic driving and new models, we expect R & D expenses to reach RMB 6 billion (US $ 1 billion) within the next three years. Among them, more than half of the expenses will be used for automatic driving related research and development.
2020 Ideally R & D costs were 1.1 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan in 2021, 6 billion yuan in 2023. It can be seen that the intensity of ideal research and development in the next few years will be “hard”.
Figure 6: Ideal 2019 Finance Summary, Source: Wind
2) “Soft and hard integration feedback”
Excellence believes that smart cars = 4 wheel +1 smart phones, the latter success company can also be easily successful in the field of the car.
The above ideas, big mistakes. Smart cars must be “soft and hard integration”, which is completely different from the smartphone industry.
The schematic of smartphones and smart cars is different, and the focus of smartphones is an ecology. Ecology means providing a wide variety of applications on the basis of ARM and iOS or Android operating systems. So, Android smartphones can be understood as a combination of universal standard parts. The standard of the chip is ARM, which is the Android operating system above the chip, and it is a variety of apps. Because of its standardization, whether it is a chip or an Android system, or an app (this is one of the reasons why Tencent and other companies “hard”), it can be easily independent.
The focus of smart cars is the data support algorithm and hardware two-way optimization. The algorithm requires extremely high performance whether it is in the cloud training or at terminal. Smart car hardware requires a lot of performance optimization for specific dedicated applications and algorithms. So only algorithm or only hardware or only the operating system, long-term look will face the predicament of performance optimization. It is easy to perform performance optimization only if each component is developed. Separation of software and hardware can result in performance that cannot be optimized.
“Soft hard integration” is not an alternative to the intelligent car company index spiral growth, but it is inevitable to do. Judging from public information, ideal is already:
Hardware level. Ideally, in 2018, through the acquisition of Lifan Motors, the self-owned factory is also completed in 2019. The first phase of the factory has been put into use in Changzhou, Jiangsu, and the annual production capacity can reach 100,000 units. Self-built intelligent factory, establish high standards and quality systems, which are beneficial to product quality improvement.
As for the research and development of force chips, it has not until the appropriate stage, Tesla is also purchasing Mobileye and NVIDIA, which began to develop FSD chips – this is determined by the automatic driving technology “Eggs along the way”.
Figure 7: Ideal car Changzhou manufacturing base, source: company official website
Software level. Ideal will transform the automatic driving system in Beijing and Shanghai R & D center by the real-time road data provided by medium million-level delivery (2025 China 20% market share). More data drivers a better automatic driving system, and make ideals more intelligent to increase delivery.
Direct to essence, soft hard integration is a specific path to achieve the ideal second phase strategic objectives, and is also a 15% -25% market share in the next 5-10 years to “the remainder is king” underlying logic support.
Use the “shortest key” to “from 1 to 10”, build a hard-harder-integrated hard system with a long target as a traction, such system engineering cannot be built in the fantasy aerial pavilion, must have realistic cornerstone as a support .
The cornerstone that supports the ideal second phase strategic target is the “from 0 to 1”, which has been comprehensively reflected in its latest financial report. In addition, the industry “potential” cannot be ignored.
1) Compare advantages
In terms of visiting mirrors, ideal is to cut into the smart car industry with “increased range technology”, which can be called “foresight”, which brings it to it so far, only the “comparative advantage” of the next cycle is rationally evaluated:
Financial angle. Included smart car driver is the first place in China’s new energy SUV, and lays a solid financial foundation. In 2020, Q4 net profit is correct. More importantly, its free cash flow is 1.6 billion yuan ($ 250 million), more The last quarter of RMB was increased by 113.2%. Even in the case where the growth rate is not considered, the ideal annual free cash flow reached more than 6 billion yuan, which is rare to the new source automotive industry in the “destruction” in the previous period.
User angle. Avoid early pits (short, long-term charging time, etc.), established reputation and branding. Ideal from 0 to 1st and core strategic thinking is user thinking: to meet the driver’s driving experience with the increased range driver and solve mileage anxiety is a little. Look at the configuration of the smart cockpit, the design “Who is the design of the four platforms in the car? Before the year, Ideal passed the K song function through OTA, and the microphone sold in the mall was snapped up. What’s more interesting is that according to our rural survey, even after the dad is car, the name of the car has been changed to “XX Mobile Castle”.
We should see the essence, do not necessarily sell well, ideal and ideal one win in: to create mobile home, create a happy home for the mission, to create 500,000 under this mission guide The most competitive medium-sized SUV is more complining user needs.
Figure 8: Ideal Mall microphone sells free shipping, Source: Ideal app
Industrial angle. So far, high-end battery technology is still difficult to break through, 2020 Battery progress – BYD blade battery, Ningde Times CTP technology, Tesla 4680 “noi ear battery – is a breakthrough in physical heterogeneous level, energy density is only 160Wh / kg, Turning 1.5 times to 400Wh / kg, and life can be flat with the fuel trachee.
Whether it is a solid-state or even a semi-solid battery, the high-end performance of the negative material and the charging equipment are in an embarrassing breakthrough window. In the next 3-5 years, the ideal reuniteity advantage will continue.
Technical angle. The ideal prosecution technology path decisively established cash flow advantages, it also proved that the technique of intention is not the best technology, only matches the current user’s technology is reasonable technology, and makes it increasingly followers.
In addition to the incremental driver, the second-generation pure power platform that supports 400kW ultra-fast charge will be another base card for the ideal pure electric vehicle: the increase-incremental confrontation is the irretion of battery technology, and the charging network is not complete mileage anxiety; 800V High-voltage fast charge is one of the most pragmatic and most controlled quasi-mature technologies, will establish a driving confidence in the ideal future pure electric vehicle user group.
Specifically, the high-pressure platform, high-charge rate battery and ultra-fast charge technology developed in advance, the core is the high-power charging network of -4C charging magnification, silicon carbide electric drive system, 500A and 400KW high-power charging network, adapted 400kW Fast charged thermal management system. This is the breakthrough movement of the battery energy density. It is real solves the industry’s pain points, allowing consumers to charge the entire charging experience, speed, and efficiency can be greatly improved, and get rid of mileage anxiety.
These comparative advantages provide time window and cost advantage for the ideal car to cut into the pure electric market and the research and development of cutting-edge technology such as automatic driving, smart cockpit.
2) Check the acknowledgment
We still have to go back to automatically driving this topic. All along, the market is the main concerns about the ideals lies in the automatic driving technology dimension, which seems to be in other major competitors. And because of the new strategic plan, the ideal automatic driving prospect is clear.
route map. The first step, the ideal in an unmanned area of EREV (increased array) verification market; second step, through 15-5 million priced multi-model EREV and BEV shock 20% (1.6 million) market share. In the third step, the delivery of leading markets produces a large number of cash flow and data, watering the automatic driving system, target L4.
feasibility. The key to the above route is whether the market share of competitors can be obvious, feasibility is:
EREV subdivision area has no level competitors, Sails sf5, 图 free, there is also a short-term smart car, etc., the extension of smart cars, etc., product strength and ideal ratio still have a lot . We believe that ideal in the advantages of increased intelligent cars will continue, and a variety of new models of the second generation of extension electric X platforms are pulling points.
150,000 -50,000 models, we can distinguish:
Ideally entered 500,000 high-end models is still not very clear, because the data and information of the reference are insufficient, we don’t make judgments. In about 300,000 medium-end models, ideal competitiveness is quite strong, and the delivery data shows everything, and the first year will break 5,000 of the monthly purchase deadline.
In about 150,000 low-end models may be the killing of the second phase strategic target. Comparing Tesra and Xiaomi’s potential opponents, ideal may push the production models and mass production – Current Tesla cheap version is in the process of forming a localization team, Xiaomi really mass production may be 3 years (formation Team, market research, formal R & D, experiment, production, delivery, etc. are at least 3 years).
Of course, the future will be excited to make the most consumer, and the Q4 call is given the product guidance. “When doing Bev, the form will not use traditional cars. The concept of whale is Let users get bigger space, sharks are better performance. “
There may be no many people observed this, what is the form of a traditional car? What is the user gets bigger space? This allows the first time to think of the automatic driving car of the American drama “Upload” man, full of disposable space. In the past few decades, Hollywood leads global scientific and technological progress by dreaming.
Figure 9: Directive vehicle for more fully dominate the space, source: “Upload”, although it is impossible to do it in a US drama, but more cool car forms still attractive. It may bring new consumption enthusiasm, such as the “Art and Collection” of General Motors, specially responsible for car shape design and has been successful. This forces Ford to stop the T-vehicle of “Tolerit” to produce a new T-vehicle.
Figure 10: Industrial Design, Ford and General Motors, Source: Network
Of course, whether the model is super-expected to wait for verification, but there is no cool thinking of others to be the first step in success.
3) Industrial potential energy
The capital market is in the expenditudes of the new forces of the new power of the car from the 1 to 10-technical maturity curve – no additional credit (deterministic) and confident (imagination).
Figure 11: Technical maturity curve, source: network
Li Xi’s ability to see the problem is relatively transparent, with the ability to hit the essence (can search for the live broadcast of the three texts last year), know how to increase the information for the company:
First of all, doing things that others can’t think of doing.
His first product is “low-speed electric car SEV”, and did not think that due to policy reasons, the project was terminated in 2018, which means a lot of backward, but eventually transfers through the extension, free cash after delivery The stream has increased significantly. In addition, his BEV model has to change the traditional car form, his “car and home” concept (the most beginning to use the car as another home design) may be like the inverse rules, it belongs to “see it at the time.” Get a bold, see a reasonable layout afterwards.
Second, business enterprises must not only have the ultimate long version, but they can’t have a short board for dragging the legs.
A very real problem is that the annual delivery amount from 30,000 to million, can management? How many companies are annihilated because of the management of growth and the change of the industry?
You know, buy a traditional fuel car, there is almost no change three years later, and a smart electric car is growing almost every month, which means that the management method will be completely different, and the demand for talent will be completely different. . What effectively uses human intelligence mode, building product and organizational management operations systems, is a compulsory course for every smart electric vehicle.
See this article about Li Xi’s thinking and practices of intelligent organizations, please refer to this article: “Li Wei: The intelligent organization that will hug and its operation paradigm”.
The above is the credit of Li Xi, and the thinking of improving the information.
In addition to credit, from 1 to 10 process, entrepreneurs’ self-confidence is also the main consideration of the capital market.
Formulating a relatively radical 2025 strategy is the biggest confidence of Li Xi, but this kind of self-confidence is not blind, the ideal is not panic in the heart: cash reserves close to 30 billion, single quarter can generate free cash flow, basically Hematopoietics to support high intensity R & D and capital expenditure.
In other words, only the air is full, the target is clear, in order to have such an entrepreneurial level, as a “three-way world”, as well as Mask’s “Colonial Mars”. Sentence is this: When the goal is very clear, the world is blurred, and everyone will make the way for you.