Is the apple’s chariot? Three perspectives chat about the apple

Editor’s note: Recently, the news of Apple to make a car is booked. According to media reports, “Apple Car’s adventures will make car digitize, from the era of ‘small trouble’, and then enhance to subversive Level, enter a new era. We will see true meaning The ‘full digital car’ “.

Many media reports on this matter are almost a thousand articles. They all believe that “Apple Automobile has been launched, the opportunity of other car companies will remain”. ” To this end, we specially invite graduated from the German Khanez Institute of Technology Automobile Manufacturing, and now, in a new energy mutual car company, the new energy automotive industry has been thinking and observing the big bark authors “Yesterday” yesterday “yesterday” Dry goods full, different analysis and interpretation.

Up to 2020, in 2020, when people can reproduce Rongjing in 2021, Apple as a science and technology giant is first exposed to cooperate with modern cars, in the United States, Georgia, Georgia. The factory produces the news of the automatic driving car, which triggered a great concern in the public.

Apple is not a new topic. In 2014, Apple has started its automatic driving car “Titan” project, and it has passed the seven years today. However, regardless of how the media reports and how public opinion speculates that Apple’s car is, Apple has always been in the mouth, maintaining almost absolute silence. As a listed company, Apple has an obligation to disclose a major event for its company’s operations to the public, but the author appreciates Apple 2014 to 2020 annual report (Form 10-K), and did not find any information related to the car project. Therefore, Apple is more confusing.

Just 17th, in the video interview with Fox News, Cook said “We will continue to make the best products around the world, although not the most, it will be the best.” Moderator Chris Wallace asked “Is it” Apple Car? “, Cook’s answer is” I can’t comment on the rumors. “The host then said,” You can, you may choose not doing this, but you are a boss. ” Cook smiled and responded “Yes, I chose not to do this.” This can be said to be the latest and most authoritative information about Apple cars.

Due to the lack of sufficient official authority information as an empirical, the author can only get through the media reports, industry experience and common sense, and try to find a certain logic clue in the chaotic information like the puzzle game. To this end, the author selection three perspectives will be analyzed from the three aspects of panoramic, progress and possibilities. It must be emphasized that the author can only analyze the deduction based on existing information due to unable to confirm the authenticity of the information, for reference only.

panoramic

Apple’s panoramic perspective contains two parts. On the one hand, Apple is the advantages and disadvantage of the car, and on the other hand, it is the development competition pattern of the automatic driving industry. To analyze from panoramic perspectives, we need to answer four basic questions about Apple.

From the common sense response to the above problems, Apple has laid a leader in the field of technology innovation, and is the leader in the global technology company. In this way, the public is full of apple to the apple, I believe that Apple Motors will continue the market of Apple mobile phones, and will be the leader in similar products. However, in this case, Apple’s advantages and disadvantages are also protruding. Apple is one of the best companies in global cash. There is not much worry on research and development, once it is determined that the R & D direction, Apple has a smooth financial security project, which is the advantage of Apple. However, Apple lacks accumulation in the core technology of electric vehicles, and it is difficult to obtain business success without the vehicle platform.

Looking at the industry pattern of automatic driving new energy vehicles, Tesla has laid the status of its industry leaders, and is still expanding the advantages between the later people, while other new forces are actively chasing. Recently, news exposure has been known as a patent document that is known as Apple, but carefully observes this information. It can be seen that the techniques involved in these patents are mainly related to man-machine interface equipment (HID) related to control and display. This is indeed Apple is a well-known area, can create a full-scale technology for users, but not the core technology of automatic driving. In this emerging industry, Apple is probably difficult to propose subversive innovation programs, and thus cannot continue the glory of the mobile phone industry. Therefore, Apple cars can not be known in the future, the head business is not known, and the risk of ordinary players and even marginal players still exist, which has formed a huge drop with the public.

How does the world’s automatic driving industry now show how pictures? In terms of the technical path of automatic driving development, whether it is a new power of the first advantage or a traditional car giant, it is generally selected from the starting point of the Delivery user, continuous accumulation of user data, and gradually upgrading the iteration path. . Tesla as a leader in this area has released the L5 automatic driving technology FSD based on self-research chips, and planned within the year. It is also unweound, which releases the automatic driving technology NAD based on the new Aquila hyperbank system and the ADAM overseest platform in the early Operating Day event, and is also a FSD that has more operational capabilities exceeding Tesla. Xiaopeng is also invested in automatic driving technology research and development. On the basis of delivery of L2-level automatic driving Xpilot 2.5, the XPilot planning layout of L5 is released, and it is demonstrated in closed road environment in the near future. Automatic navigation assisted NGP. And Google’s automatic driving project Waymo has chosen a relatively risky strategy, starting with L4, while currently, while continuous testing optimization and small range test operation, there is still no publication of mass manufacturers and applicable vehicle platforms. In such an industry pattern, how will Apple cars position? As a scientific innovation giant expected, Apple may not choose the general path from the L2 level to gradually upgrade iteration, and public opinion is generally estimated that Apple’s goal is to directly implement L5 automatic driving. Such a target setting is undoubtedly filled with technical challenges. At the same time, it is necessary to innovate a new technology research and development route for 12 years of development. It is possible to achieve such a technical goal.

schedule

Through the timeline reported by the media, we can roughly get the following inference: First, Apple is indeed developing automatic driving technology, and has been tested using a third party platform, but the possibility of seeking autonomous platform technology is smaller; second The people in the Apple Automobile project are more frequent, and the strategic adjustment and layoffs of some extent in the general time period 2016-2019; again, according to incomplete statistics, the current exposure of the whole car manufacturing involving apple products Relevant companies have the public, McNene, and the latest modern Kia, but have not officially signed a cooperation agreement; Finally, the earliest date of Apple Automobile is currently presented in 2020 than the 2020 forecast for 4 years. As mentioned in the above inference, Apple’s automotive project lacks a clear development direction, still full of many variables, and is not very optimistic.

Of course, there is a factor for Apple’s active confidentiality, but the horizontal contrasting other competitors’ progress bars, Apple cars have not advantageous today. For example, Google Automatic Driving Motor Project Waymo was created in 2009. Waymo has been operated as an independent subsidiary in seven years, and has also been released from the appearance of water droplets. Up to now, Waymo operates automatic driving service Waymo One in Phoenix, and is also testing the inside of China’s automatic driving truck cargo service Waymo Via. In addition, Waymo has also released many technical details, such as optical radar laser near honeycomb tm . The progress of the Silicon Valley, the progress of Google’s automatic driving car project is significantly faster than Apple.

But whether it is Apple or Google, the non-automotive industry’s technology giant company has to face a major congenital disadvantage in the research and development of automatic driving, that is, the lack of the vehicle platform, and cannot accumulate actual user data. The automatic driving technology of electric car companies such as the head of the industry can optimize the upgrade through the actual use of data and artificial intelligent depth learning. With the continuous increase in the delivery of the whole vehicle, the actual driving data of users will grow in an index type, and will cover more scenarios. In contrast, Apple and Google and other companies can only have a small amount of testing vehicle linear collection data, from the perspective of engineering technology, there is a certain issue in system robustness (Robustness) and scene adaptability. In this case, the technical gap between Apple Automobile and Industry Headers will be larger.

possibility

After combing the development timeline of Apple Automobile, it is compared with Google’s automatic driving car project. We can’t help but ask: What is the possibility of Apple Automobile in the future? In theory, Apple cars has three different development paths.

First, Apple can make full use of its own advantages in the microelectronic architecture and software, while avoiding the disadvantages on the vehicle platform, as a one-ring on the industry’s supply chain identity with the identity of the automatic driving technology vendor. Baidu’s smart car business chose such a path to build himself into an automatic driving solution provider, allegedly established a cooperative relationship with more than 70 car companies, providing a L3-level automatic driving solution. The technical risk of this path is relatively small, but the benefits are also very limited. Considering that the head players generally seek autonomous automatic driving technology, Tesla has even entered the research and development of automatic driving chips, so companies that wish to purchase Apple automatic driving system may only have a second-class player, even edge players, market possess The rate is also likely to be in the middle. For the company’s corporate image of Apple Technology, Apple’s automatic driving technology will become a embarrassing negative asset. The second path is to carry out depth nested with specific vehicle companies, and both sides have played the technical advantages on automatic driving and vehicle platforms, and cooperate to develop new automatic driving cars. Recently released smart electric car brands “Intelligence Auto” is the product of Alibaba and SAIC’s deep cooperation. Under this path condition, the technology giant can put the resource advantage into the research and development of automatic driving technology, and the system testing and even the user data collection by the company’s vehicle platform, thus making up for the disadvantage on the vehicle platform. The whole vehicle company also uses the brand and intelligent system development capabilities of the Science and Technology Giant, and quickly improve the intelligence level of the product is a win-win business technical strategy. However, since the automatic driving technology needs to be attached to the vehicle platform to achieve its business value, such cooperation will be dominated by the vehicle company, and some extent is the transformation of traditional car companies. In the current market competition, such companies have not revealed significant advantages in the competition with the industry’s head enterprises, so if Apple is interested in choosing this path, the specific way of partners and cooperation between the partners will be further Focus on focus.

The last path is to develop a complete automatic driving car independently. For Apple, this may be the Apple Automobile ICAR expectation in the heart of “fruit powder”. However, this requires Apple to invest greatly in the development of the vehicle. In the case of no car production foundation, it is also an important way to achieve mass production. In the case of complete research and development, Apple can also depth innovation to the product, implant the high-tech gene of Apple brand into the Apple Automobile. Contrast the first two paths, the ceiling of this path is higher, but the risk is also greater, and currently, the automatic driving science and technology giant business is not clearly selected. Therefore, if Apple intends to be the first person to eat crabs, you need to take out the leading product of the real industry to meet the public’s expectation and get business success.

to sum up

In general, the author observed the problem of analyzing the problem of Apple’s car, but it is not optimistic about the layout and development of Apple and other scientific giants in the automatic driving. For emerging automatic driving automotive industries, competitors do all the explorations and efforts to survive and develop, all of them have the possibility of success. For Apple, the automatic driving car business is an important growth point in the future, and it is also a challenge that must be dealt. For the follow-up development of Apple’s car, the author will continue to observe and provide more analysis for readers.

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