In recent years, the installation of China’s soft bag battery in electric cars is continuously declining.
According to the passenger certificate of the whole car, in 2020, the soft bag battery installed capacity was 9.2GWH, and the market share decreased from 8.5% in 2019 to 6.1%, and the amount of installed decreased close to 1.6GWH.
Why is China’s soft bag battery seems to be lower and lower? Is the soft bag not taken from the car? What is the future future?
On March 18-19, “The 2nd New Energy Automobile and Power Battery (CIBF2021 Shenzhen) International Exchange will be held in Shenzhen. This session was sponsored by China Chemistry and Physical Power Industry Association, sponsored by Battery China, and conducted in-depth discussions around the technology application and development of soft bag battery.
Of course, the vehicle enterprise determines the installation of the battery. To find the root cause of the soft bag battery, or start from the car company.
“Electric Automobile Observer” and the relevant person in charge of the car company have been discovered, and they have two attitudes, and a company has a preference for technology routes, such as Tesla habits, cylindrical batteries; in China supporting lithium iron phosphate uses The square of Ningde, but Tesla CEO Mask is still 4680 cylindrical batteries on the battery day; domestic cars, Jianghuai is a fan of cylindrical batteries; Changan is more competing with square batteries.
Another type of company has no special preference for technology routes, as long as it can meet the requirements, this type of car company is more.
Source: Certificate of Factory
“Electric Vehicle Observer” has been found in the adoption of some car companies, such companies have doubts about the safety, reliability, and group efficiency of soft bag batteries.
(1) Safety, reliability is worried
The deputy chief engineer of a car enterprise frankly, the loss of the soft bag battery, the battery will bloke, the leakage situation, the consistency, the safety is not good, so the quality of the soft bag is not significantly improved. Consider the soft bag product.
The engineer said that even if you choose a soft bag, you will give priority to LG Chemical, Vision AESC, and SKI. They do the foundation of the soft bag battery is more solid. The control of the soft bag is more strict, and the product quality should be better.
Some of the relevant person in charge of the company have doubts about the life of the soft bag battery.
“In general, the fire life of electric cars is more than ten years, and the life of the soft bag battery aluminum plastic film has not been verified. It can not achieve the life of the whole vehicle after group.” The person in charge said.
(2) The supply chain is not perfect
There is also a concern that the company has doubts about the safety of the soft bag battery supply chain. Mr. Zhang, who has a battery person in charge of a vehicle, said that due to differences in soft bag route and China’s mainstream routes, some raw materials, production equipment’s procurement channels are still more single, including aluminum-plastic film, lithium battery production equipment, small amounts Wait, once related suppliers have problems, it will have a certain adverse effect on the production and operation of battery companies, and the supply stability of the vehicle enterprises.
According to the disclosure, the total demand for aluminum plastic film produced by domestic enterprises is 7% -8%, and most of them depend on imports. The Chinese market was almost Japanese DNP (about 50%), Japan Showa Electric (20%), Japan T & T (10% -15%), Chemical, four melons.
China has also obtained the relevant patents and production lines of aluminum plastic film by acquisition. In 2016, Xinyi Technology costs 9.5 billion yen to acquire T & T to involve aluminum plastic film business, obtain factory and related assets, and obtain all patents and proprietary technology in China’s exclusive license and non-exclusive license in Japan.
However, the advancement of new eulmon technology aluminum plastic film is not smooth, and the production capacity is released slowly, and the market share is shrunk.
It can be seen that there is not much soft bag battery company to recognize and have capacity in China, which is not much in China. This is in the view of the vehicle, the supply of raw materials upstream of the battery is risky.
(3) low in grouping efficiency
The group is low, one of the soft bag shorts mentioned by car enterprises and system integration orders.
In their view, CTP (Cell to Pack) has become the mainstream trend of development, while the soft bag structure is insufficient, so the module cannot be canceled.
The opinions of Mr. Liu, the head of a battery system integrator, similar to the person in charge of the new forces car companies. Mr. Liu believes that from a set angle, the soft bag battery is soft, so many plastic brackets are installed outside the battery, very wasting space, and the group efficiency is relatively low.
Mr. Liu believes that most of the car companies with higher cost requirements will not adopt a soft bag battery.
(4) The battery is very difficult
The soft bag battery capacity cannot be too large. Due to the limitation of aluminum plastic film, the thickness of the battery will not be too large, and can only make up in terms of grewwrenes, and it is difficult to set it into the battery pack.
The relevant person in charge of a new force company said he examines that the length of the soft bag battery has been to 500-600mm has arrived, and then some, the production process will be discussed, and the straight rate will drop sharply.
The thickness of the soft bag is limited by aluminum film, so it can only be extended on the length and wide range to make the battery capacity to be large; or a positive material with a higher nickel content, increase chemical activity to increase the monomer capacity.
In the integrated efficiency and the thickness direction of the battery, the square hard shell battery is won. Therefore, the car company has more favorable in the square battery. 2
International market soft bag value decline
Although the soft bag battery is not popular among domestic cars, it is still very wide in international car companies.
EV Sales data shows that 15 of the best-selling 20 new energy passenger cars in Europe in 2020 have a soft-package power battery with a market share of 75%.
Source: Fu Can Technology PPT
International, the number of models of soft bag batteries has a lot of models. According to incomplete statistics, more than 30 models are equipped with soft bag batteries.
Car companies and models with soft bag batteries abroad
Source: According to the public information
There are also many crises behind the soft bag, such as the LG battery, LG and SKI intellectual property disputes, and the inclination of the public to square batteries, all have an impact on the market share of the soft bag battery.
(1) LG power battery large-scale recall
In October 2020, modern cars announced that 76,000 KONA electric vehicles were recalled around the world. The reason for the recall was initially determined that the battery codes had a risk of fire, while the electrical core supplier came from LG chemistry.
Since then, modern has opened a global recall, with a total of 8.2 million electric vehicles.
On March 5, 2021, Korea Business Weekly, Businesskore, modern automobile and LG chemistry have agreed to recall 8.2 million electric vehicles for replacement of batteries with 3: 7 proportion of electric vehicles, and the recall estimate is 1.4 trillion won ( About 8 billion yuan).
Modern frequently fire with LG chemical batteries
On November 13, 2020, General Motors announced the recall of 68677 Bolt electric vehicles. The car is equipped with LG chemical batteries.
The high price recall not only makes the LG chemical reputation damage, but also a negative impact on the Modern Motor Group’s 2025 strategic plan.
From battery procurement, 2020 modern cars no longer use LG chemistry as the first choice. For example, the first high-end brand Genesis first pure electric G80 EV uses SKI’s battery solutions; for E-GMP electrified platform battery suppliers, there are also multiple candidates, such as the first batch of models created by E-GMP platforms. The battery will be supplied by SKI, and the second batch is supplied by LG Chemistry and Ningde Times. The third batch is reported to be between SKI and Samsung SDI.
Subsequently, in February this year, there was a media exposed, and Ningde Times won the billion battery order of modern cars. The latest news shows that BYD’s share will provide blade batteries to modern cars from 2022 and have now set up a modern project group.
After LG chemistry recall, it is clear that China’s two square battery giants are also beneficial.
(2) LG and SKI patents are lasting
The “mutual tear” of the two soft bag giants also affects the supply of car enterprises.
South Korea’s two major battery manufacturers SKI and LG chemistry because the power battery intellectual property dispute has been “tearing” in the United States for nearly two years.
The final result is that the US International Trade Commission (ITC) released a 10-year restriction order for SKI, which prohibits them from importing some lithium-ion batteries in the US.
ITC’s sanctions may seriously affect the relevant planning of American Volkswagen and Ford’s electric vehicles.
Previously, Volkswagen and Ford had warned that the US legal disputes between Korean battery manufacturers may interrupt the supply of key components of electric vehicles.
It can be seen that the dispute between the two soft bag battery giants has brought great influence on the development plan of the car enterprise, and the car enterprise is not exempt from their supply safety.
(3) Volkswagen standardized battery adopts square battery
Just when the two giants were rotten, they were Golden Lord – the public was going to change the supplier.
In the public “Electricity Day”, the public said that they hope that the Group’s 80% models can apply standardized batteries, 20% models can be designed with non-standardized battery, which can achieve scale efficiency.
From the press conference, the public’s standard battery selection is a square shell battery, which is good for many China’s power battery manufacturers. Especially in the Ningde Times, in the industry, deep tillage batteries in the industry, and one of the important suppliers of the public, it is likely to become a beneficiary.
According to Reuters report, the Volkswagen has decided to achieve a large blood test of the battery supply chain in two years. According to the current battery technology strategy of the German manufacturing giants, the future, South Korea’s battery suppliers will be largely excluded in the new Outside of the purchase list.
From the recent media reports, the public is indeed in deepening and cooperating with Ningde Times. Reuters reported that the three insiders revealed that the Mass Group is planning to give up cooperation with LG Chemistry and Ski, South Korea, more of the products of Ningde Times. A similar statement on March 16 on March 16. At the evening of March 16, the Volkswagen Ceo Disresses also said in the interview with Chinese media: “We have a lot of cooperation with Ningde Times, and also maintain cooperation with Guoxuan’s high school to achieve more battery. source.”
Ningde Times will be more orders. At present, Ningde Times also establishes a power battery plant in Germany, and the future may directly supply it to the public.
It is undeniable that the status of LG chemistry is frequent, and it has a positive impact on China’s battery companies and the square battery market share. 3
Is there a prospect of soft bag?
People may not help but ask, is there a prospect of the soft bag?
To determine the soft bag battery outlook, you must understand the advantages of the software package, the solution to the short board, and the attitude of domestic battery companies. After all, most companies do not have technical routes, as long as they can do well, they do not exclude the soft bag.
(1) High energy density, good security, small internal resistance and flexible design
First, the energy density is high, GGII data shows that the average battery energy density of the three-yuan soft package power battery in the current power battery industry has reached 240-250Wh / kg, but the three-dimensional power battery of the same material is 210- 230WH / kg. The three-dimensional soft package power battery monomer battery energy density is 10% -15% higher than the three-dimensional power cell.
Take Fu Can Technology as an example, which has currently realized the industrialization of a 285WH / kg soft bag lithium-ion power battery.
Second, the safety performance is good. Under the same material system, the ternary soft bag power battery is under aluminum film film pack, if the battery is completely out of control, the general flatulence is released; the square, the cylindrical battery is unable to release, the heat is not released, the internal pressure is large It will cause an explosion.
In addition, the square, cylindrical battery is used, and as the battery usage is increased, and the internal temperature of the battery is different, the stress distribution is uneven, in particular winding, thereby generating a safety hazard.
Third, the three-dimensional soft bag power battery has a large capacity, and the electrochemical performance advantage is small. Due to the small internal resistance, it can reduce the self-consuming power of the battery, improve the battery multiplier performance, cycle life, and medium heat generation.
Fourth, the electrical core level, the size of the three-dimensional soft package power battery cell, the design is flexible, and the company can customize the needs of our own product design. In the module and battery pack, the space layout of the ternary soft bag power battery is more flexible, which can be rectangular or T-shaped layout to meet the spatial requirements of the power battery.
(2) Optimization of group efficiency, aluminum plastic film supply domesticization
First, in the improvement, lightweight and process, the Minister of the Battery System of Chery New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. proposed some suggestions.
In terms of group efficiency, Zeng Xiangbin believes that the discharge space of the battery should be more standardized, do not have some waste of space, this is what we should do. There is also integrated large module technology. If the energy density of the battery is increased, the overall efficiency will have a big increase.
Lightweight meetings, you can have some changes from design, process, materials, design optimization, such as tab or empty plates. The composite is used in PCM materials with lighter and higher intensity. The lower housing uses magnesium aluminum alloy to rise, which is also broken.
There is also a process, and all processes are connected to tannic acid and laser welding, and the structure of the viscose can also be used. For example, the body of the small ants, the state of aluminum alloy is adhesive, and the density of the architecture is light than the metal, which can improve the properties of the material.
In the aluminum plastic film, Chinese suppliers are also rapidly rise.
In recent years, domestic aluminum plastic films have been continuously updated and improved in terms of equipment, technical industries, materials, etc., product consistency, quality and electrolyte properties have achieved great development.
Taking Ming Guanxin Material Co., Ltd. as an example, it has obtained the patents of aluminum film products in 2010, and there are 100 patents.
In terms of shipments, the crown of the Ming Dynasty has been shipped since 2017, and the accident caused by aluminum plastic film is 0.
However, the championship is not much in aluminum plastic film, and it is very cautious in expansion. Yan Hongjia explained, “Our products should consider considering the consistency, that is, you can do tens of thousands of square meters, any product has not been done for millions of square meters, we have made millions of square meters for so many years. If There is no data to do millions of square meters, your consistency is not guaranteed. “
After the Mingzhang believes that the technology is enough to mature, it will begin to expand the production. At present, the champion is in the IPO, fundraising, is to raise an investment of 80 million yuan, carrying a 10 million square meter lithium battery aluminum plastic film expansion project.
With the gradual increase in companies that participate in aluminum plastic film, technology is constantly mature, and the supply problem is expected to be resolved.
(3) China battery supplier layout soft bag battery
It is necessary to see if this route has a prospect, but also to see if someone is layout, and how is the position of the layout company?
At present, China’s Power Battery Leading Enterprise Ningde Times, and the second-line leader Guoxuan high school is in the layout soft bag battery.
In Ningde Times, it has been supporting a soft bag battery since 2019, and the installed capacity has been steadily growing, and in June 2020, it has jumped to the Chinese market soft packaging machine.
Last year, Ningde Times took the 380.5mWh installed capacity, ranked fifth place in China’s soft packaging machine, more than 10,000 and other old-fashioned soft bag enterprises.
2020 soft bag battery installed TOP10
Source: According to the public information
Not long ago, Daimler reached a cooperation agreement with Ningde Times. From the information on the industry, the cooperation technology route between the two sides is mainly based on the soft bag battery. In addition, Guoxuan’s high-tech also has a soft bag battery capacity layout, mainly supplying the public.
It is understood that Guo Xuan’s product capacity soft bag battery production can be stepped up, for example, for the supporting Wuling, Guoxuan construction has built 5GWH phosphate lithium iron soft bag battery line; for the mass, the soft bag production line will also be put into production in 2022.
Although it is difficult to determine the future market proportion of the soft bag battery, it is certain that with more and more square battery companies enter the soft bag, the technology maturity of soft bag batteries will be higher and higher, and its market is The ratio will be greatly improved, maybe in the future, the market share will only be square, becoming the second largest power battery pack.