Mao Lei rotates revenue double loss, how much is Xiaopeng’s first annual financial report?

On the afternoon of March 8, Xiaopeng has released 2020 Q4 quarterly earnings and 2020 unspecified financial data, and held a financial conference on a financial report before two hours.

From a number, the most conspicuous is gross profit margin, whether it is a single season or year.

Xiaopeng 2020 has reached 4.6% of the gross profit margin, compared to the previous year directly increased by 28.6 percentage points. Q4 gross profit margin has reached 7.4%. This is that Xiaopeng realizes positive profit for the second consecutive quarter, and is also the first year of margin.

At this point, the so-called “electric three stupid” – Xiaopeng, Wei Si, and ideal achieve the turn of the year. And Xiaopeng this report has once again proved that the general trend of smart electric vehicles is unstoppable.

Second, Xiaopeng cars not only successfully fulfill Q4 delivery over 10,000 FLAG, and it is expected.

Xiaopeng Q4 is delivered to 12964, helping the total delivery of 27041, an annual increase of 112.5%. As the flagship model, Xiaopeng P7’s data is bright. Q4 bicycle delivery is 8,527, an increase of 37.3% from the previous year, and 15062 units were delivered all year round.

The total number of delivery has risen sharply, and it must also bring the following three results:

1. The total growth rate increases: the total revenue of the single season increased from 1990 billion yuan to Q4 to RMB 2.851 billion ($ 437 million), which exceeded $ 404 million in the previous overseas institution.

2. The net loss continues to reduce: 1.41 billion US dollars ($ 121 million) from Q3.

3, the gross margin double: from 4.6% of Q3 to 7.4% of Q4.

In the end, after two consecutive quarters of gross profit, Xiaopeng Automobile’s total revenue climbed to 5.844 billion yuan ($ 896 million), an increase of 151.8% from RMB 232.1 billion in 2019. GAAP Camline The annual net loss has also dropped from 3692 million yuan in 2019 to 2.732 billion yuan.

With the 9 o’clock in Beijing time, the stock price of Xiaopeng car began to gradually red. One hour later (10 o’clock in the evening) has risen more than 6% and goes to $ 29.89 per share. As of press time, Xiaopeng’s share price has been to $ 28.7 per share, up close to 3%.

Before you measuring the stock price

So, what did He Xiaopeng said in the financial conference? How much is Xiaopeng’s first annual financial data report?

Today, let’s talk about this.

First, the amount of gold

From our observation, Xiaopeng car’s previous stock price, still falling when the financial report has just been released.

However, with the approach of the financial conference, more and more key detail disclosures, the stock price began to turn red, and rose all the way to 10:17 at 10:17, the number of $ 29.50 per share, rising 5.24%.

Why is this this? After listening to the financial conference, we believe that there are three points.

First, there is a large decrease in the net loss of Q4 than Q3. As mentioned above, from Q3 1.49 billion yuan to q4 is 787 million yuan ($ 121 million). At the same time, the gross profit margin is also continuously lifted, from 4.6% of Q3 to 7.4% of Q4.

Second, Q4 delivery and total income are superior.

Xiaopeng 2020 Q4 total delivery has reached 12,964, and the “over 10,000” expected in Xiapeng’s three-quarter earnings report was higher than the year-on-year increase of 302.9%, and the increase of 51.1% from the previous year. Among them, P7 delivery is 8,527 units, an increase of 37.3% from the third quarter.

The total revenue of Q4 has also increased significantly to RMB 2.851 billion ($ 437 million), an increase of 43.3% over 2020 Q3.

Finally, it is also the most important, He Xiaopeng said in the financial conference, Xiaopeng Automobile 2021 Q1’s delivery guidelines are still as high as 12,500, and the income guidelines are 2.6 billion yuan.

Previously, Xiaopeng had announced the total number of delivery in January 2021 and February, respectively, 6,015 and 2,223 units.

In other words, even if Q1 has encountered the Spring Festival in the Spring Festival, the delivery guidelines and total income guidelines in Xiaopeng Auto have remain in a very high level. Compared to the best Q4 last year, there is only a few hundred and more than two billion gaps.

Another reason that cannot be clear is: Xiaopeng’s flagship model P7 is the most important car forces that are most affected by domestic MODEL 3 since 2020.

The model is similar, the price is similar, and even the core selling point is similar, and when the domestic Model 3 2020 is just delivered, public opinion believes that P7 is finished, Xiaopeng has to finish. However, even if domestic model 3 continued “4 times in the past year”, its standard contingency version of the standard continuation has also dropped from 331,05 million in December 2019 to 249,900, but with the mass delivery of P7, Xiaopeng The total number of car of the car starts all the way to 8,578 vehicles, Q4 ultra-expected 12964 sets.

As for P7, Q3 delivery 6,210, Q4 delivery 8527 units.

In this way, P7 can be said to be suppressed completely from domestic Model 3. This is critical to Xiaopeng.

And Tesla also seems to be exceptional Care. So in November last year, Xiaopeng Automobile held a press conference in the Guangzhou Auto Show, Mask disclosed DISS Xiaopeng car on Twitter, and attracted He Xiaopeng’s counterattack. (For details on Masque DISS, He Xiaopeng Weibo counterattack, for “old resentment” is also “new hatred”?).

Therefore, although Xiaopeng Automobile 2020 Q4 and the full-year financial report data, especially in key data such as total delivery, total revenue and gross profit margin, it is best to say, but its gold is Not low at all, even it is very high.

This may be the reason for Morgan Stanley to see multiple XPEV stocks to $ 70 per share in the development of Morgan Stanley.

Second, Intelligence> Electric> Car?

We discussed this topic in the articles in the previous few days.

A specific expression is: When the oil car, even some traditional brand tram is in smart driving, the smart cockpit is not as good, the quality increase is worth money? And when they can do more than those in the intelligent field, even good, good, how much is the quality of quality?

From the opening of the financial meeting, He Xiaopeng said, he agreed that this inequality, even thought that intelligence is far more than electric, or even cars. His first forecast for Xiaopeng Automobile 2021 is directly related to intelligence: NGP Guangzhou to Beijing’s “expedition”.

The expedition is the result, what is the reason why Xiaopeng is safe to perform an expedition?

His confidence, a large part from the “penetration”.

The first is the penetration rate of the smart cockpit, and since XMART OS 2.0 is updated in October last year, since the launch of “full scene voice”, each month, the daily voice usage exceeds 90%. He Xiaopeng believes this is “Xiaopeng self-developed smart cockpit system compared to the thorough changes in traditional cars.”

Second is the use of NGP. Since the official PLP update of XP3.0 on January 26, a total of 20% of the sold P7 activated this feature, and the mileage of the driving mileage from the end of January has reached 1.3 million kilometers.

He Xiaopeng also mentioned a number: the mileage penetration rate in February, that is, the current NGP use mileage divided by NGP, more than 50%.

The above proportions, in the back of the Q & A links, He Xiaopeng is summarized as “NGP speed guarantee”; on the other hand, it is reflected in the financial report.

2020Q4 Xiaopeng gross profit margin is 7.4%, which has significantly increased significantly from 4.6% compared with 19Q4 and 20Q3. It is more interesting. The overall gross profit margin of Xiaopeng is higher than that of car sales gross profit margin.

why?

Because of the “service and other” in the earning report, Xiaopeng’s income of 297.6 billion yuan increased by 98.3% year-on-year, almost doubled. In addition, this part of the cost is 247.9 billion yuan, and the single gross profit ratio has reached 30.6%.

The official expression is “Mainly coming from the sales and retail product revenue growth associated with vehicle delivery”, and after we further inquiry, the conclusion obtained is “Software price after XP3.0, calculated in the inside.”

Third, the current car and acceleration

After listening to the full financial conference, we also have a discovery: 2021, Xiaopeng will be the only car enterprise with the new car.

This car is the third car of Xiaopeng, a A +-level smart pure electric car equipped with a laser radar (Livox production), is expected to be officially delivered in the fourth quarter of this year.

He Xiaopeng today said that it will be the world’s first mass production smart car with laser radar: “This model will support XPilot 3.5 with the main road NGP capabilities with the main roads of the city based on visual-oriented and laser radar. “

In addition, in 2022, they will also provide next-generation automatic secondary driving hardware platform on the fourth car, launching a higher level of XPilot 4.0: “Confident 4.0 version will bring high-level automatic auxiliary driving new subversive experience “

After saying this car, go to the count, and you will feel that this year or even Xiaopeng’s products are New Year’s Day.

For example, the P7 Peng wing version of the P7 Peng wings that started in March this year, equipped with a super-run shear door, standard XPilot 3.0 system, and the main high-end coupe market. For example, the Lithium iron phosphate battery version of the lithium iron phosphate battery has been launched on March 3, which is scheduled to be delivered separately from 4 or May this year.

In the third quarter of this year, Xiaopeng will also start the delivery of G3’s medium-term change models.

He Xiaopeng also said today that with the promotion of delivery, Xiaopeng Zhaoqing factory has prepared for the production capacity of one million units, and its new Guangzhou production base has also begun construction, which is expected to be put into production in the third quarter of 2022. .

According to the current Q1 direct delivery of 12,500 units, Xiaopeng single month has about 4,150 units.

When can Xiaopeng will realize the production of 10,000 units in single month, pay 10,000?

This depends on its acceleration, and Xiaopeng cars undoubtedly being accelerated.

Fourth, phone conference Q & A

Q1: Delivery expectations of P7 second quarter? Does the LFP version have an impact on delivery?

He Xiaopeng: In the last 6 months, the battery will be the focus of our continued attention. The LFP model believes that there will be some new challenges for the second quarter battery, requiring us to maintain close cooperation with suppliers.

In the second quarter (Sales), it should be a climbing process for Xiaopeng cars, but it is believed that there will be significant rising in the third or fourth quarter. We have sufficient confidence in the quick amount of LFP.

Xiaopeng person: Since the launch of the LFP model, the order already has 20% order growth, and the battery supply problem we expect to improve in Q2.

Q2: Is the delivery guidelines and expectations in the second half of the year? Will the chip supply do not affect?

Xiaopeng personally: At present, we will not give long-term guidelines, we believe (data) will continue to grow up healthily. At present, the chip supply is maintained for 2-3 months, and we will also guarantee (temporary shortage of car chips) will not affect. Of course (chip) This is also the point of our long-term concern. I think the main plant compared to the larger volume, Xiaopeng’s chip demand is still safe.

Q3: Will new generation XP will consider subscription systems? Or increasing pricing?

What we will take a higher level of charge for different versions, such as the higher version of XP, but is the one-time or subscription system, we will adjust according to user feedback and our thinking. But in general, the charge is increasingly high.

Q4: Sales proportion of LFP and three-yuan lithium models is expected?

Xiaopeng personally: P7 LFP model will account for 20% higher than the total sales volume, and G3 is about 10%, and we will continue to promote new battery models. The LFP has basically canceled version of the version without XP, launched a higher SP3.0 software subscription scale, as for the whole year, or too early.

Q5: Is there a difference between LFP and three yuan model hardware?

Xiaopeng person in charge: The role of the LFP model is to increase sales, one is to reduce costs. In terms of profits, we have no specific data, but the LFP models of P7 and G3 have such a role.

Q6: Subscription ratio of XP3.0 software? What is the expectation of 3.5?

Xiaopeng person: P7 XP activation ratio is approximately 20%, we can also see the activation ratio in slow growth, hardware pre-installed, we will see the proportion of software activation grows.

We feel that the architecture is better and the version is better, and its penetration will be higher. It is very difficult to expect the future of XPilot 3.5 software.

He: With the upgrade of XP, we will go to the old version. The new model does not have a version of 2.5, all of which are over 3.0 or more, and the fourth car is only 4.0. With the improvement of software data, and hardware scale, the integration scale increases, the cost is declining, and the whole model will be made to bring all smart hardware, and the possibilities are possible.

Q7: The next XP3.5 is urban NGP, including 90 degrees turn and red green light identification, the original plan XP4.0 is launched in 2023. Is it in advance now?

He: With the R & D of XP3.0, we have more confidence in 3.5, 4.0 or even 5.0 and other versions. It is more advanced than the original plan, and the XP3.5 version is slightly advanced than the original time.

Q8: Is the laser radar to implement XP3.5, orin can implement L4?

He: We believe that laser radar, and higher power, laser radar and millimeter wave radar, the convergence of the camera will bring better redundancy, in order to truly help us at the city of the city, then to the secondary road In addition to the city’s urban roads, you can provide safer, better interactions, and better experience automatic driving capabilities.

I believe that automatically driving in China’s broadening, even to the national driving, still has a longer time. But arrive at a quasi-unmanned driving, we believe that it will be more fast than imagination.

This year will have a considerable amount of increase in research and development in R & D last year, including software algorithms, international markets, and fourth generation XP automatic driving software related drive hardware changes, Xiaopeng cars are doing very much investment. Q9: Regarding the development of overseas markets, there is no specific guide, the technical iteration of XP in the international market is not the same?

He: When I started in 2010, I was doing overseas markets, so I attach importance to and understanding the international market, and many entrepreneurs are different. The international market takes a very long paving.

From the development of our country, it is currently desirable to apply to overseas markets in similar patterns, do not make big changes, so that the entire product line can quickly copy expandable.

In terms of automatic driving internationalization, XP2.5 will directly synchronize, and the international version of XP4.0 will also be developed on this basis. Coverage areas will be dominated by Europe and developed countries. Most of our smart cockpit is all self-developed. From 2020, we have developed a certain scale of overseas teams, will continue to expand this year.

It takes 12 months or more times to operate overseas markets. Once the foundation is made, the efficiency of the late expansion will be very high. Our platform levels, to make the foundation, brand service and self-developing first, can be done quickly in a few years of market, brand service and self-research, can be quickly replicated and rapidly increased.

Q10: Will the R & D team will be expanded in the cash reserves?

He: From this year, people who develop and service systems will grow rapidly. At the end of 2021, the R & D personnel will exceed the original double, and the ecosystem will also lay a lot of basic research and development personnel.

Q11: Relevant software changes, XP3.0 is only 30%. Will it adjust the price difference and improve software revenue?

He: Will not, because it is necessary to concentrate on technology, including high-level automatic driving, or even no driving. Our goal is to achieve the world’s first, do not intend to compatibility with new models. In addition, we will provide users with better experiences while providing users with better experiences through new ecosystems and scenarios outside software service costs.

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