Special author / Zhou Yanwu (industry senior expert)
Edit / Car Editorial Department
Produced / car heart
Global epidemic, Japanese earthquake, USA is cold, and the automotive industry has received three crit on the supply chain in the past year.
About automakers often see reports because of news of chip shortage reduction.
However, it is necessary to truly understand the truth and status quo of the refinement, and the financial system of the global semiconductor company is the most reliable material.
To determine the source of the chip shortage, first take the car chip supply chain, which is a long and complex supply chain.
There are two sources of automotive chips:
One is IDM (Integrated Device Manufacture), which is integrated component manufacturer. IDM has three main sections of chip design, production, and test.
The other is the wafer generation plant.
A considerable number of chips in the industry is fabless, and there is no wafer factory under the name, but the chip is entrusted to the wafer plant for production.
IDM / FABLESS chip, most of which shipped large Tier 1, the first-level parts supplier, and a small amount of distribution network.
Therefore, most car companies face Tier 1 instead of chip manufacturers.
From Tier 1 to the upstream car chip, get 100 to 120 days, about 3 to 4 months.
Taking NXP as an example, the typical inventory period is 110 days. Get the chip from Tier 1, create parts products, and then deliver to the vehicle factory, about 1 month.
The whole vehicle factory gets the parts provided by Tier 1, assembles and ships to 4S shop, about 1 to 2 months.
That is to say, the car chip manufacturer’s exclusive production needs to be 5 to 6 months earlier than the whole vehicle.
To a certain extent, this also means that once the car company is not accurate to the future market, it will chaos the rhythm of the upstream supply chain in several months.
In the above supply chain, typical representatives in various fields are as follows:
Five types of core semiconductor market pattern
The 2019 global automotive semiconductor market is approximately $ 37.2 billion.
Among these chips, approximately 87% from IDM, 13% from Fabless.
Automotive semiconductors can be divided into five categories:
One is the power semiconductor, mainly including Power Management ICS, LDO, DC / DC, MOSFET, IGBT, DIODES (Fast Recovery, Schottky, High Voltage).
Power semiconductor is the most important composition of automotive semiconductors, accounting for about 43% of the automotive semiconductor market.
The second is MCU, approximately 20% of the automotive semiconductor market;
Third, the ASSP, ASIC, Simulation, Mixed IC, FPGA, DSP and GPU outside MCU account for approximately 20% of the automotive semiconductor market;
The fourth is the sensor, mainly including image sensors, MEMS sensors, and Hall sensors. About 8% of the automotive semiconductor market.
The fifth is a memory, including a variety of embedded memory, SRAM, DRAM, FLASH, accounting for approximately 9% of the market.
The following table shows the global top ten car semiconductor enterprises in 2019, and the proportion of corresponding to its auto business in 2020 total revenue.
In addition to Bosch, almost all semiconductor suppliers have no more than half.
The figure above shows the manufacturer ranked in the field of segment.
(1) Sensor field
Bosch ranked first, mainly accelerated sensors, liquid level sensors, air pressure sensors, gravity sensors and IMUs, basically all MEMS sensors.
Infineon is mainly magnetic sensors, current, pressure, radar sensors and MEMS microphones.
Many Mei is mainly an image sensor.
Melexis is mainly current, speed, pressure, magnetic, temperature, speed, optical sensor.
NXP is mainly radar sensor.
(2) MCU field
NXP is mainly dominated by power transmission, including EPS, ESP, engine management, gearbox management, body, air conditioning, headlights, keys, and seat areas.
Risa is mainly in meters, engine, engine management, motor control, and chassis, instrumentation, and automotive machines.
Infineon is mainly ADAS, chassis, engine control, power transmission. Almost in the ADAS field is almost monopoly.
Texas Instruments are mainly used in the field of body, lighting and power transmission.
Microchip is mainly the body and ADAS field.
(3) Power element field
Infineon is mainly IGBT, MOSFET, drive IC.
STMicroelectronics is mainly SiC, MOSFET, and drive ICs. Bosch is mainly driving IC, LDO.
Texas Instruments mainly drive IC and PMIC.
Messen is mainly MOSFET.
High-pass steaming, smart cockpit, smart driving double track
Qualcomm announced on February 3, a quarter of the 20021 fiscal year, Qualcomm’s fiscal year ended at the end of September of September, so the 20021 fiscal report is 2020 Natural Year’s Four-quarter earnings.
Since December 2019, Qualcomm divided its own products into mobile phones, RF front, cars and IOT four major applications. The automobile business became separately reported by the department, and the inside is concerned about this part of the business.
The 2020 fiscal year is $ 16.5 billion, of which 10.5 billion US dollars, RF front ends of $ 2.4 billion, mobile phone 640 million US dollars, IOT is $ 3 billion. The car business only accounts for 3.9% of Total Total Income.
Qualcomm Auto Business Main products include cockpit SOC, wireless MODEM, C-V2X, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.
Currently mainly wireless MODEM, rough calculations can account for 70% of the automotive business.
Qualcomm in 2020 Q4 car business revenue reached US $ 21 million, a large increase of 44% year-on-year, an increase of 12.8% from the previous month.
Also in Q4, Qualcomm Other business sectors is excellent, mobile phone and RF front end increased by 79% and 157% respectively. Net profit is $ 2455.5 million, an increase of 165% year-on-year, and the market is expected to be $ 2068 million.
However, Qualcomm has issued an early warning: a first quarter of the predecessor is 72-8 billion US dollars, fell than the $ 8.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Qualcomm said that the upstream production capacity is insufficient, so we speculate that Qualcomm’s car business has to decline.
In January 2021, Qualcomm announced a series of new products in the automotive field, including fourth-generation cockpit systems and smart driving products.
The fourth-generation Snapdragon Automotive Digital Cockpit Platform uses a 5-nanometer process process and is prepared for Amazon Alexa custom systems.
In addition, this project is also integrated with many unique technologies: the 6th generation Kryo CPU, Hexagon processor, multi-core AI engine, the 6th generation Adreno GPU, and Spectra ISP.
At present, General Motors have determined that high-pass chips will be used in the next generation cabin, the former cockpit is the main force of Intel’s A3900 series chip.
In the automatic driving area, Gao Tong Snapdragon RideSoc is based on 5 nano-processes, which can provide a force from 10 TOPS – 700 TOPS.
Qualcomm’s RIDE platform has been adopted by SAIC and Great Wall, Overseas.
British Weida lost Audi, car business continued to decline
The main customers in the car are Mercedes and Audi.
The Mercedes-Benz cabinet has been using the SOC of Yingda.
Audi also used the Ying Weida chip in the previous generation, but in the second half of 2019, the newly listed model was used to use Qualcomm chip. From 2021, it was changed to Samsung chip.
Ying Weida’s 2019 car business income approximately $ 700 million, and in 2020, the big customers lost Audi, and its annual car business revenue fell sharply 23.4%, reduced to $ 536 million.
As for more advanced smart driving chips, the contribution currently in the revenue is still very low, almost negligible.
British Weida and Qualcomm are facing production capacity. The two companies are Fabless, and they have to look at the face of the wafer.
Wafer genetic capacity is tight, and the shipments corresponding to Fabless will decline.
Intel is stepping
The Intel Auto Business is mainly divided into two parts: a part is the Mobileye acquired, part of the cockpit SOC, an Atom A3900 series.
Intel’s 2020 income is $ 77 billion, and the car business is less than $ 1.5 billion, accounting for 5% smaller than the total income of Intel.
Mobileye’s fourth quarter of 2020, achieving net income of 333 million US dollars, an increase of 39% from the same period in 2019.
In 2020, Mobileye achieved net income of $ 967 million, an increase of 10% from $ 879 million in 2019.
Such performance growth has benefited from the increase in shipments in the Eyeq series chip and ADAS system.
In 2020, Mobileye Eyeq series chip shipments were 19.3 million, and the global accumulated shipments were 73.3 million. Mobileye has entered the plateau period, relying on the hardware integration of play to cut into the market in advance, accounting for the first time, but now British Weida, Gao Tong, Texas Instruments, Rissa have chased it.
Mobileye is still insured, and will definitely be occupied by other manufacturers.
The Intel product line is too wide, the focus on Mobileye is not enough, the resources are insufficient, especially the progress of Eyeq6, and is from 2025, far behind the competitors.
In terms of strategy, it also announced progress in the field of laser radar on this year, and the laser radar is cut from the full visual program, and the long-term planning of Mobileye is also displayed.
Atom A3900 Series has been launched in 2016. The main customers include Tesla, BMW, Modern, General and FCA, main Tier 1 with LG and Samsung Harman.
Although the A3900 series is good, there is no update plan, which may cause customers to lose.
GM has explicitly the next generation cabin adopts a high-pass chip.
Tesla uses A3950 on Model3, the last generation of Models S is the GPU of Intel E8400 Gen Wenda.
The latest Model S is AMD chip, the next generation of Model3 estimates will be replaced with high pass or even AMD chips.
Shortage of culprit
TSMC, SMIC has lost
TSMC is the world’s largest wafer substitute, 2020 car chip foundry business revenue approximately $ 1450 million, accounting for 30% of the global auto chip foundry market.
For TSMC, the automotive chip business is slightly short.
Because digital car chips mainly use 16 – 28 nano-processes, mixed car chips are generally 16 – 45 nm, and the simulation class is generally 28 – 90 nm.
TTEF is 7 nanometers and 5 nanometers. TSMC is a complete monopoly market in 5 nanometers. The profits are high than the car chip.
The main customers in the automotive field are Rissa, NXP and traditional semiconductors, and the main products are the shortest lack of MCU.
In the third quarter of 2020, Taixia Electric vehicle business plunged. The reason may come from Huawei.
Huawei is going to get on September 15th, not only including high-level unicorn chips, but also other 16 nm monitoring chips, may have crowded some car chip production capacity, leading to nearly 50% of the car business.
Reflected in the revenue in the fourth quarter of TSME, in September, and its car business revenue is immediately recovered.
SMIC announced its financial report on February 5, 2021, which has fallen by 9.4%, an increase of 17% year-on-year.
Among them, the mainland customers have decreased sharply. I speculate is to lose the big customers of Huawei.
The North American customers increased significantly, it may be the power management or drive IC of Texas instruments.
SMIC’s car chip foundry should be in “Other”, in the fourth quarter of 2020, but mobile phone and smart home are reduced.
TSMC is currently facing the difficulty of water, and the semiconductor manufacturing requires a lot of high purity water.
Taiwan has been severely drought in February this year, and the LCD panel industry has a greater water consumption.
Time-consuming power plant and panel manufacturers in a industrial park, current TSMC has begun to transport 1000 cubic water exercises a day.
If the Spring Festival continues to drought, it may affect the product output, and the desktop power will reduce the amount of low-profit car chip tags to ensure high profit 5 nano production capacity.
NXP supply is the tight
NXP released the annual financial report on February 2, 2021.
The 2020 NXP revenue was $ 8.6 billion, down 3% year-on-year; the gross profit margin was 51.1%, 2019 is 53.5%.
Car business revenue is $ 3.83 billion, down 9% year-on-year.
The picture above shows the 8-consecutive quarter NXP car business income, an increase of 24% in the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 9% year-on-year.
The above table is NXP in the first quarter of the predecessor, the ring is slightly increased, and the year-on-year increase, which shows enough supply and marketing.
However, gross profit margin has not returned to the 2019 level, showing only a small number of distributor networks that have not been increased by large customers, and price increases.
Look at the financial and supply chain structure, the development of supply chain management is accompanied by the development of high finance and financial management:
Operation funds (DWC, DAYS OF WORKING CAPITAL), unfamed accounts (DSO, DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING), stock days (DIO, DAYS OFENTORY), and financial control system characterized by DPO, Days Payables outstanding Establishment. DIO reached 120 days in July 2020, in the fourth quarter of 2020, Di 78 days, the stock is rapidly reduced, NXP normal inventory level is 100 to 110 days, and it is expected to return to normal levels to take 2 to 3 quarters.
DPO is the account payable to the supplier, and the rapid increase in the fourth quarter of 2020 is basically returned to normal.
NXP vendors are mainly a sealing test mill and wafer substitute, which shows that the wafer foundry and the seal field can be sufficient, otherwise it will not increase from 55 days from the third quarter to 75 days.
In addition to distributors, NXP top ten customers are mainland cars, Apple, Bosch, Electricity, Samsung, Anboyu, Ericsson, Huawei, LG and ZTE.
Mainland cars are NXP’s largest customers, so they are deeply affected. The mainland cars, especially the downstream customers, PSA, Renault Nissan, and FCA are deeply affected.
NXP has 5 8-inch wafer plants, one seat located in Singapore, with TSMC, and 61.2% of shareholding ratios; the remaining four are located in the United States, which is actually an asset brought by Freescale.
However, NXP self-contained wafer has a process of up to 90 nm, which is 0.09 microns.
This can cover most of the power components and MCU products, but excluding the main ASSP, such as I.MX6, I.MX8 series, and some top MCUs such as I.MX RT1170 MCU.
Most of these products are 28 nanometers, and the Wafer Factory is required.
The ESP of mainland cars is also very likely to use NXP MCU, most of NXP’s MCU is 90 nm technology. NXP main partners are TSMP.
NXP has two 8-inch wafer plants located in Austin, USA, mainly producing MCU, which is the most power plant of NXP MCU.
This two plants have been discontinued from February 16th, which is expected to be suspended from February 16th.
This will exacerbate the supply shortage of NXP, and other factories in NXP have been fully loaded and capacity cannot be stored.
British Feiling: Monopoly New Car Four Xiaolong IGBT Supply
In February 4, the February was released on the first quarter of the 2021 quarter, and the Blendon ended its financial year on September 30th. In the fourth quarter of 20020, it was the 2021 fiscal year in the fiscal year.
The picture above shows the performance of the auto business for 5 consecutive quarters.
Infineon completed the acquisition of Crypress in April 2020. In the fourth quarter of 20020, Infineon car business revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, an increase of 10% from the previous month. Operating profits increased by 185% year-on-year.
The order shipping ratio (Book-To-Bill-Ratio) is a leading indicator for observing trend purposes.
If the value is 0.2, it is simply that the company sells $ 1 for $ 0.2 at the same time.
This value is less than 1, showing surplus market supply and demand, and customer orders will not be strong.
The value is greater than 1, and the customer will be strong.
Obviously, from the third quarter, market demand is very strong.
In the four financial liquidity indicators, the inventory period in the 4 quarter is 107 days, which is much higher than NXP.
The source of British is still very plentiful.
DSO, the speed of customer checkout is accelerating, and it should be more urgent.
The DPO has changed greatly, and the upstream supply chain of Yingfine is stable, and the outsourcing has not increased.
The main customers of Yingfine are shown in the figure:
Including ADAS and Cockup, Bochi, BYD (purchasing IGBT), mainland car, electricity, Europe’s second largest car lighting sea, Hitachi, Modern, Japan Jingbin, US Li, Korea chassis and pass to big Wanbu, Mitsubishi Electric, Japan’s Electric, Fareo, Vinner, ZF.
Infineon monopolies China’s four new new products, the Chinese market share in this field is more than 60% in this field.
Yingfine’s 2020 fiscal year product distribution, Xev is basically coming from China, and it is estimated that IGBT is mainly IGBT, with approximately RMBT, which is approximately 3.8 billion yuan.
The main manufacturing base of British Felling includes Malaysia Kulim (8 “Factory), Penang (8” Factory), Germany Dresden (8 inches and 12 “plants), Regensburg (8” factory), Austin (8 inches, from) CYPRESS, TEMECULA (6 inches, from IR, planned in September 2021); Austria’s Villach has a 6-inch, an 8-inch, a 12-inch plant. Infineon is newly built a new 12-inch wafer factory in Villach, mainly used to produce IGBT and MOSFET, but it is necessary to mass production at the end of 2021. Once put production, it will greatly reduce the project.
By the way, a power component wafer factory takes approximately three years from the beginning to start mass production, while logical components take 4 years.
Yingfeilon’s 8-inch factory in Austin, USA came from 2019 to buy Cypress, and the 8-inch circle plant has about 30,000 single monthly production capacity, which is expected to be affected by Types of Treatment of Treatment of Treatment of Treatment of Treasury. It is closed for half a month, and Yingfine has no other factory capacity to be available.
Among them, 20,000 production capacity is a production of MCU and other products. 10,000 pieces are produced by NOR FLASH chip, accounting for about 5% of the world’s NOR FLASH chip, and these NOR FLASH chips are mainly car and network communication applications.
In order to obtain more car chip capacity, Reinhard Ploss, the CEO of Yingfeiling, who is in the CEO, to pay attention to the TTEP Power President Wei Zhejia, hoping to have a strong support of TSMC in the current energy capacity, and Wei Zhejia also agreed Hand support.
Infineon almost monopolized the domestic electric car chassis MCU. The supply of MCUs in the British Failure will have a shortage, which has an impact on domestic electric vehicle manufacturers, especially small manufacturers.
The chip supply chain is relatively long, and it is expected that the shortage of 5/6 months will affect the shipments of domestic electric vehicles.
Mobileye and Tesla, but not affected by strike
STMicoelectronic is abbreviated as ST, an intention to semiconductor.
The company suffered from strike on November 5, 2020, so performance is not as good as other car chip manufacturers.
ST top ten customers are Apple, Bosch, Mainland Car, HP, Huawei, Mobileye, Nintendo, Samsung, Seagate, Tesla.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the ADG business department income increased by 12%, an increase of 3% year-on-year. Compared to other two business units, the performance is poor.
The Semiconductor ADG business department performs in five consecutive quarters.
It can be seen that although the impact of strikes, business profit is increased nearly double, but it is still fell than last year.
Most people’s impression of the STMic Semiconductor also stayed on the STM32 MCU.
In the actual vehicle, all Mobileye chips currently intend to semiconductors, and Tesla SiC MosFET is now supplied by the exclusive supply of STMicase.
STMicroelectronics is not good in 2021 quarter, and the semiconductor is expected to fall 9.5% in the first quarter income, but it increases by 31% year-on-year.
ST has 7 8-inch plants, 3 6-inch plants, 1 12-inch factor, sufficient production capacity, just the strike has affected about a week.
Bosch is the largest automotive customer of semiconductor, which is affected by strikes. Bosch is tight, and it should be better now.
Texas Instruments is stable like Taishan
The automotive business accounts for 20% of the total revenue of Texas instruments.
Texas Instruments In the fourth quarter of 20020 increased by 22% year-on-year, an increase of 6.7% from the previous month.
Texas Instruments product is simulated, embedded, and other (mainly DLP) three major categories, and the simulation accounts for about 75%, and the profits are very rich.
The simulated product life cycle is very long, the R & D cost has long been diluted, the profit margin is extremely high, Texas Instruments are the world’s largest simulated chip manufacturers, mainly in the field of power management, and to address serial fields.
The embedded is mainly DSP, Jacinto series, mainly used on the driver, and there are also some in the ADAS. Embedded products have increased by 14% year-on-year, but embedded products have declined significantly in 2020, and the annual income is $ 2.57 billion, down 13%.
Simulated product sales growth, and more profit, the overall Texas Instrument 2020 income and profit is basically flat.
Texas Instruments occupy the dominance in the field of power management, and the automotive sector is almost monopolized.
In addition, it is also a place in the ADAS and cabin fields in the Supan and J6 series. Texas Instruments have two 12-inch wafer plants, 8 8-inch wafer plants, 2 6-inch factories (will be closed in 2021).
The main factory is located in Dallas, Texas, USA, Richardson is close to Dallas, Dallasbi Austin is more close to north, and it is necessary to close.
Sheman Hillman is also near Dallas. The headquarters of Texas Instruments is in Dallas.
This time, the ultra-cold weather will seriously affect the product supply of Texas instruments. The power management IC is more shortage in 2020 and has been in a price increase, may continue to increase prices.
Renesa supply shortage
Renesa 2020 car business income is 341 billion yen, with a $ 3.19 billion, down 6.2% from 2019.
In addition to cars, Renesas also has industrial and IOT business groups.
In the overall product combination of Rissa, MCU accounted for 46%, SOC accounting for 12%, and 31% of simulations, and 8% of power devices.
The main development direction of Risa is a mixed and analog signal product.
On February 8, 2021, Renesa was equipped with $ 5.9 billion in $ 5.9 billion in the UK IC design.
Dialog’s main products are power management ICs (for Apple, accounting for 69%), AC / DC power conversion, low power Bluetooth, digital audio CODEC.
Apple is 66% of its first major customers, Dialog is $ 1.42 billion in 2019, with Rissa bidding is to semiconductor, and finally Rissa bid is higher, before Risa has acquired two Mixed signal IC, namely IDT and INTERSIL, cost is $ 6.7 billion and $ 3.2 billion, respectively.
Rissa is approximately 30% manufactured by the wafer plant, and 70% is completed.
In the future, outsourcing plans have been further raised to 40%, and the main partners are TSMC, and the world is advanced.
Renesa has been in the 12th quarter of automobile semiconductor business income, with an income of 95.3 billion yen in 4 quarter of 20020, an increase of 19.7% from the previous month, a year-on-year decline in 5.5%.
The above picture shows the status of Renesa, the left is the internal stock of Rissa, and the right side is sales channel inventory.
Formation stocks have changed significantly from the fourth quarter of 2019, while sales channel stocks began to decrease significantly in the third quarter.
Renesa and NXP are worldwide, and 80% of the car seats have a MCU in Rissa.
Renesa has been reduced from self-contained capacity since 2011:
Sale of production lines in Roseville, California, USA for sale to Telefunken in May 2011;
In 2012, it was sold to Fuji Electric.
Selling 300mm in Yamagi County to Sony in 2014;
The Power MOS production line in Group Ma County is closed in 2014;
Officials in Yamagou County in 2014;
In 2016, the production line of Shihe County was sold to Rom;
On March 2017, the Yamagata production line was sold to TDK; in May 2018 closed the yield line in Kochi;
February 2019 Sold Haas production line equipment to China.
In order to pursue advancement of product importance, Rissa first uses a 28-nanometer process in the automotive MCU and embedd flash.
Renesa has a huge capacity, but does not produce such advanced chips, because the logic circuit and Flash flash circuit are different, and the more than TSM, Rissa’s 28-nanometer MCU is almost commissioned to set up 12-inch line production, However, Renesa should also have the capacity to produce some MCUs.
In addition, Rissa’s 16-nanometer R-Car3 series chip is also a commissioned station.
However, there is currently no marketing price, and Rissa currently rises or analog IC and power products.
The reason why Rissa given the raw materials and packaging substrates, which is actually mainly 8-inch wafers raised prices, and in addition, Taiwan’s packaging materials increase price.
Renesa’s production capacity utilization from the fourth quarter of 2017, it can be seen that the 8-inch capacity utilization is significantly improved, but there is still an increase in space, and the 12-inch capacity utilization rate is similar to 2019, and the promotion is huge.
Overall, the capacity is sufficient, and the promotion is huge.
Renesa customer distribution map
Because some of the MCUs can be homemade, the supply of Rissa MCU is not too nervous.
However, the R-Car 3 generation series is probably all by TSMC, and the supply may have a shortage.
The downstream has the greatest impact or the public, especially the FAW Volkswagen and SAIC, and its drivers use the R-Car M3 chip. Japanese customers began to use R-Car 3 generation chips to make a car in the second half of 2021, almost unaffected.
Renesa was affected by the Earthquake in February 13, the main factory of the vehicle chip main plant was discontinued from February 14th, but on February 21st has resumed production, it has not been too serious.
Auto chip is out of stock is structural
Almost all car semiconductor manufacturers have fallen in 2020, and it is expected to rebound in 2021, an increase of approximately 15%.
The automotive semiconductor industry chain is too long, and the shortage may have to maintain 3 quarters, and it may be alleviated in the fourth quarter of this year.
At the same time, automotive chip is out of stock is structural, the most serious impact is NXP and Rissa’s indirect customers.
Volkswagen, PSA, FCA, Renault Nissan are seriously affected.
Hyundai Kia, Toyota, China’s independent brand and electric vehicle manufacturers have little impact.
The affected is a slightly serious is Honda and Ford.
There is also Mercedes, BMW and General.