Unmanned, cut house price – Shanghai Auto Show Side

Shanghai Auto Show, especially Huawei Baidu and other Internet giants, opened unmanned, unmanned, will profoundly change our “clothing and food”, and will also trigger the new pattern of travel and platform giants. Let us imagine the day of drone implementation, the following three aspects possible changes:

1, the automotive industry

2, housing

3, travel platform

Part 01 car industry

There is no doubt that the entire automobile industry that is the first to be rushing by unmanned changes, we will predict from different sides such as consumers / supply / circles.

1. Most people are not buying a car, but use the vehicle according to its own demand.

Don’t ask for “all”, just ask “owned”.

This logic is not difficult to understand, just as the little sister’s thinking logic.

Suppose, you are still willing to buy a car, once the car will send you to your destination, one of your choices is to share this car, and help you save the parking costs while you can earn some foreign fast subsidies. Your appeal is that when you need this car, it can go back to you in time.

Suppose for some reason, your own cars can’t come back in time, but in order to calm your dissatisfaction, you are willing to provide you with another vehicle. Are you willing to be willing?

Let’s change a angle, you bought a car, but you can only use it for 2 hours in the time of 24 days, if you don’t share it, you still have to pay the parking fee; additional solution, put It shares it, the rest of the 22 hours it can help you make money, are you willing to be willing?

The answer does not speak.

Therefore, the final logic is that most people will no longer go to buy vehicles, but based on their own needs.

2, global car ownership and sales will drop to 1/3 of the current level

When we are most consumers accept the car “sharing”, the use efficiency of the car will increase significantly. Usually the usage time of private cars is around 90 minutes, while the car is shared, the use time of a car can be improved can be improved. By 6 hours, a car can at least solve the travel problems of 4 people. If this is calculated, the global car’s guarantee has fallen to 25% of the current 25%, but considering the people who use the unmanned, the crowd used (eg Old people who have no driving license, etc.) will increase, so the calculation requires the current 33% of the car ownership.

Of course, this is a gradual replacement process. First, in the perfect use of unmanned, large-scale use and replacement, and then gradually expand to the whole country and even the world.

3, the vehicle commuter is increased, the commuter time is shortened

One of the premises of unmanned driving is the digitalization of the infrastructure such as road traffic, eliminating the safety accident such as collision caused by people for driving, and is expected to increase the speed of the peak vehicle due to the reduction in the number of car ownership. on.

In this way, the same approach, we spend on the road a significant reduction above 30%.

2020 speeding speed

4, small size single seat will occupy mainstream

Since no one is driving, consumers need to “rent” vehicles according to their own travel, and in fact, most of them are traveling, so small cars and even single-seat cars will be big.

5, brand weakened, industry concentration is further improved

Since most consumers use vehicles in the form of “rental”, consumers have fallen sharply to the brand, so industry concentration manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing will increase significantly.

At that time, the main customers in the automotive manufacturing industry are not “C” end, but the travel platforms under the travel platform or the “B” clients. As for the travel platform, we will explore in the third part.

Simply metaphor, go out to take the high-speed rail, you don’t pay attention to this train is a harmonious or resolved number, is CRH1 or CRH2 / 3/5 or CRH380, when you care, how much time, how much time.

There is no one driven, you care about the departure time, arrival time, what is the brand of this car, who produces manufacturing, seems to be a little relationship with you.

Therefore, the concentration of the manufacturing industry in the unmanned car will increase sharply, what extent is the concentration? You can refer to the current aircraft industry, if you think this is too cruel, refer to the mobile phone industry.

6. There is no longer existence of the circulation mode for the 4S shop.

Since consumers are dominated by rent, the main customers in the automotive manufacturing industry are based on “B”, so the current 4S shop circulation mode based on private consumption is about to end.

Just like the maintenance of high-speed rail or aircraft has a special team agency, passengers only need to pay for high-speed rail seats and airplane seats, and most people do not need to buy aircraft, and do not need to purchase high-speed rail.

Nearly 30,000 car 4S stores in the country in 2020 will face transformation.

Also currently designed for repairs / insurance / used cars for retail modes.

Part 02 housing now “Harves” has become a popular word, the housing pressure has become the most troublesome problem of young people, and can no one can become a cutlery to reduce the price of housing?

The answer is yes, the reason is the main reason:

1. The maximum cost of high housing prices is the land, and the land cannot be moved.

In 2020, there are 841.2 billion income of state-owned land use rights. The local general budget income is 1001.24 billion yuan, and five real estate taxes related to land (deed tax / land value-added tax / property tax / cultivated land occupation tax / towns) 19694 100 million yuan, plus, real estate total income is 103.836 billion yuan, beyond the local general public budget income, in other words, in the local financial revenue, exceeding half from the revenue of houses and land.

The specific data can participate in the following table, where government fund budget income is basically land income.

So do you change or optimize this situation or optimize this situation? The answer is yes.

2, unmanned car becomes a mobile apartment, give young people more choices

The land is monopoly and unmovable and become “salt iron franchise” today.

Due to China’s traditional culture, buying a house has become a just need, especially for marriage, and high-land price / high housing prices have a new one brings to us urban infrastructure, but also brings such as late marriage and late childhood / do not have children / compression Many other side effects such as other consumption.

Under the pressure of high housing prices, some developers have designed some 18-square meters mini version capsule apartment as shown to meet the needs of young people to step into the big cities.

Obviously, relative to this, the mobility and purchase cost of unmanned rides is more advantageous. The unmanned car, with a powerful information processing function, and the storage capacity is far more than the battery pack, plus the reasonable functional and fully functional and fully equipped, unmanned car to become a smart mobile apartment.

More critical is that unmanned car is produced in large quantities of pipelines.

It is believed that unhappy RV will become an alternative to some apartments, which acts directly to reduce housing prices / rent.

3. Expand the city boundaries with unmanned smart urban transportation system, which also helps to reduce housing prices.

Unmanned driving will improve the vehicle pass speed, plus the liberated hands, can take advantage of commuter time entertainment / rest / office, there is no doubt that the same commuter time means a longer distance travel radius.

Therefore, there will be more people to choose the relative room prices, which is more relatively low in the city center, so that the boundaries of the city will be further expanded, and more housing land can be provided, the demand intensity of the city center is reduced, these factors will be Suppress housing prices.

2019 Shanghai Ring Line Real Estate Average

Part 03 Travel Platform

On the date of no driving implementation, “sharing” has become mainstream, and the C-terminal retail market is basically annihilated, and the travel platform has the highest-end linker.

Consumers need to pass the APP booking, unmanned cars “calling to swim”, just like today’s drip, just there is no driver on the car.

This travel platform, in addition to the intelligence of the vehicle itself, requires strong technical support and huge infrastructure projects, such as the powerful Beidou information system, adapting to the new transport infrastructure of unhaly, clearly requires huge Capital input and technical breakthroughs.

To be a simple class, we see the smartphone in your hand, and behind China Mobile’s coverage of the national network and 5G technical support system can make our smartphone role.

By then, many of today’s rules may change:

1. The new travel platform replaces today’s “drip” to become the brain of the smart transportation system.

Today, I like “Drip” travel platform, solve the problem of “people” and “car” high-efficiency matching, solving the environmental issues needed for unmanned “car”.

The travel platform under the driver’s era does not only solve people and cars, but also resolve a series of issues such as car and car / car and environment / car and infrastructure.

2. Unmanned is part of the urban smart transportation system and needs the top floor design of the government.

On the day of unmanned driving, it is also the scale of smart urban traffic. The smart urban transportation system requires top-level design. The whole transportation system is integrated with industrial structure / population scale / urban planning. Inside the system, unmanned cars need and Subway / domestic railway / high-speed rail phase is connected and matched, which requires the government’s comprehensive coordination or to play a leading role.

3. Traffic security is challenging

Traffic safety is heavy, there is no wisdom commander to ensure the efficiency and safety of travel. This command has a large probability of cerebellar to detritionally processed, due to the real-time dynamic characteristics of traffic, distributed decisions may be preferred.

4, the ownership of the vehicle may be diversified, but manage the disposal platform to future

Purchase vehicles requires a lot of money, and its source may be diversified, nor exclude issues related bonds, but management needs to be attributed to the platform.

5. Paying as a mainstream consumer, the mainstream consumers are charged according to the “rental” unmanned vehicle, and the occupancy time of different time / different sections within one day is different. Similar to the central toll implementation of Singapore.

6, parking space sharing

Because private cars are basically disappeared, the sharing of parking will also become trend. Due to the reduction in urban car insurance, today 1: 1 The construction standards for the construction of the parking space are facing amendments.

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