Where is the new round of automatic driving investment hotspots?

Figure | From the network

Guide

Following the upper article “The investment amount increased by 35.73% year-on-year, after” picking up “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” “” ” The second half: the status quo, characteristics and investment logic and future opportunities of the intelligent network industry level.

Multi-sensor and its integration and competition 01 automatic driving important track – laser radar

Laser radar is a key basic component that promotes high-level automatic driving, and is currently generally considered to be an important sensor for high-level automatic driving systems. Most of Ford, Audi, BMW, Baidu, Google and other vehicle manufacturers or automatic driving schemes are one of the main sensors using laser radar as one of the main sensors.

In recent years, laser radar investment heat is not reduced, and it has become an important track to cut into automatic driving. However, due to high product prices (single price of about $ 30,000) and facing technical problems such as precision, consistency, durability, is still in small batch supply automatic driving modified cars and trial truck stages, and has not been achieved, and the market is small. Although there are more product technology routes in the field of car laser radar, it is also facing key nodes from testing and high-precision map mapping fields, and for investors, opportunities and challenges are coexist.

In addition, the laser radar is an important part of the automatic driving. In the competition of the technology route with the camera as the main sensor, it is also worthwhile to think in depth.

02 mm wave radar investment incident

The millimeter wave radar is based on the radio detection principle and the specific millimeter wave band is used as the operating frequency (77 / 79GHz, 24GHz). During the vehicle use, the active detection of the car to the surrounding area can be perceived the object and its motion state of the vehicle peripheral environment. To provide the vehicle to provide environmental information for automatic driving needs.

It has benefited from the continuous increase in China’s auto production and the continuous rise in the assembly ratio of millimeter wave radar, and the number of bicycles millimeters also increases. According to forecast, the China market size of millimeters in 2025 will reach 15.3 billion yuan.

Figure | 2019-2020 mm Prada field investment incident

Source: FAW Investment Research Center, car Baizhicu finishing

From investment incidents and amount, although millimeter wave radar is high, many investment institutions are concerned about automatic driving projects, but the overall investment is not as good as laser radar. The reason is that millimeter waverada is a long-term existing area, technical system and industry chain are very mature.

The current investment focus of car millimeters mainly surrounded three logic of three logic in the amount of prime ornamental and common core technologies around the advancement of advanced system radar.

03 Value-priced Sensor – Car Camera

The car camera is one of the main sensors of the ADAS system and is currently the most cost-effective sensor. The camera is combined with the AI ​​algorithm to obtain the driving environment information, and then send the results to the domain controller, thereby implementing a full coverage of the ADAS function.

At present, the car camera is worth 125-200. Realization of L3 unmanned driving average requires 3 cameras, achieving L4 unmanned driving an average of 6 cameras. According to prediction, the market size of my country’s automatic driving car camera will reach 26.9 billion yuan in 2025.

With the sustainable development of ADAS and high-level automatic driving, the car camera has become the earliest parts of various types of sensors because of the technical maturation, the price is inexpensive, and the upstream industrial chain is very mature. The investment value is mainly in the upstream key part, the camera integration algorithm and system service for OEM / Tier1.

Report suggestions, investors should pay attention to the layout of this area, continue to pay attention to the leading high-performance algorithm program based on visual leadership, and invest in the absolute power of algorithm. The risk is mainly from the sustainable risks of the enterprise program, with the potential competition of the company-based enterprises and automatic driving tier1, high-level automatic driving planners.

04 high-precision map still needs to crack costs and business model problems

High-precision maps are accompanied by the development of automotive intelligent networks, mainly for automatic driving systems, and is a new type of digital infrastructure without a human driver as a direct user. Play more basic effects in a wider range of fields such as intelligent transportation, intelligent travel, and moving things. Therefore, it has received the attention of industrial investors such as car companies, Internet companies and financial investment agencies.

Figure | 2019-2020 high-precision map field investment incident

Source: FAW Investment Research Center, car Baizhicu finishing

Due to the high cost of collecting drawings (only one million levels only), it is necessary to refresh efficiency and economics, and strive to have higher automation identification accuracy, and the future will continue to implement strong supervision. In the past two years, investment in the field of high-precision maps is weakened. Overall, the high-precision map industry should achieve sustainable profitability, still need to be advanced around the cost-continuous reduction and business model exploration.

In addition, the automatic driving high-precision positioning function is a necessary basis for implementing the automatic driving function of L3 and above. Under the circumstances of harsh weather, repeated scenes, non-visual scenarios, and in-vehicle sensor instability. According to prediction, the market size of 20025 reached 33.4 billion yuan in 2025. The main logic of future sensor evolution is to expand around the basic design principle and sensor data analysis principle. Camera, millimeter radar, laser radar, ultrasonic radar, inertial and GNSS combination positioning sensor, high-precision map, infrared night vision sensor, wheel speed, steering wheel speed meter, etc. will be co-complementary in the integrated complementary manner Car system.

E / E architecture enable software definition car 01 to software definition car road

In the mobile phone industry is already a “software definition hardware” of mature concept, in the automotive field, it is still a relatively new concept, and consumption demand is intense. The traditional distributed E / E architecture does not fully meet this design concept, car products need to rely on a new intelligent energy-evolved architecture to adapt to the changing demand design and update iteration, that is, the matching new E / E architecture support Floor.

At present, the overall trend of E / E architecture changes from distributed independent ECUs to centralized DCUs, central computers, car interconnection, E / E architectural changes, can trigger network structure in vehicles, changes in domain controllers, bring systemic change.

OTA upgrade function is an important path to implement software definitions. With the increasing maturity of OTA upgrade, the interactive form of interactive networks and vehicles is increasing, and interactive content is also more diverse.

02 Automatic driving calculation base platform investment opportunities

The automatic driving domain controller is a special computer for the automatic driving function of the intelligent network, including functional software, operating system software, and three most important part of the force chip. According to predictions, 2025, 2030 automatic driving vehicle domain controllers will reach 358.8 billion and 605 billion yuan.

Tesla and other vehicle plants and technology and consumer electronics are expanded to the area controller, which will undoubtedly promote the resource coordination between the vehicle and Tier1 through capital links. At present, the main participants in the industry can be divided into automotive chip manufacturers, consumer chip manufacturers and startups.

The automatic driving function involves the processing of diversified sensor information, the real-time requirements of the decision algorithm are high, and the real-time requirements for the control of the chassis and power. With policy support, capital investment is increased, and domestic automatic driving forcebed chips are expected to expand at high speed.

Figure | Category, automatic driving operating system

Source: Guofa LED

The competitive focus of automatic driving domain controller is mainly implemented in automatic driving functions, key component schemes, scalability, etc. The report believes that the main development direction of the field in the future, the main development direction of the basic platform is the service-oriented communication with the existing signal-based paradigm, whereby the application software and hardware will further decouple, which is the existence and development of the operating system middleware. The development of space and middleware is the opportunity to be more certain in the future.

03 Ethernet – Next Generation Car Location Network Technology

With the advancement of automatic driving function, the number of inside of the car has increased significantly, and the traffic is greatly increased, resulting in a number, weight and structure, regardless of quantity, weight and structure. In order to meet the demand of low delays, streamlined structures, automotive bus is obvious to Ethernet as the core of architecture.

The Ethernet has the advantages of large bandwidth, high flux, low delay, will replace the traditional bus such as Lin / CAN into the next generation of car local network technology. The E / E architecture will promote the popularity of the VERD in the distributed to concentrate, and the automotive bus will appear to be a heterogeneous network structure around the vehicle Ethernet.

2016-2019 China’s car Ethernet market has risen by 2.25 billion yuan to 7.48 billion yuan, with an annual complex growth rate of 49.2%. It is expected that China’s car Ethernet market will reach 57.8 billion yuan by China.

Overall, in recent years, high-speed vehicle bus demand has appeared obvious transformation, in the field of car Ethernet, currently focusing on core chips and devices in bus networks, especially high-end vehicles, Ethernet physical layer chips, central Gateway chips, car rulers, etc., localization is still the main logic in this field.

04 OTA becomes an essential function of intelligent network

With the increase in the size of the automotive electrical components, the requirements of the in-vehicle software system upgrade service are also improved, and OTA (Over THE AIR) has become the basic function of the intelligent network car. At present, OTA features have been accelerated, and centralized E / E architecture also releases the development space for OTA, further reduces the extension threshold of OTA system in the vehicle industry.

Under the big trend of software defined cars, investment M & A incidents in OTA are continuously active.

Figure | OTA field domestic and foreign major manufacturers

Source: FAW Investment Research Center, car Baizhicu finishing

With the increasing maturity of OTA upgrade, the interactive form of intelligent network car users and vehicles will increase, and the interactive content is also more diverse, and the car market will be a large-scale market, which is large, and has higher investment.

Intelligent cockpit interact with human machine

The important direction of the current development of the smart cockpit is the new human-computer interaction experience, the cockpit entertainment information system is the core of the cockpit module integration evolution. Among them, large-sized central control LCDs begins instead of traditional central control, and full liquid crystal instruments begin to gradually replace traditional instruments and begin an integrated design of medium control screens and instrument panels. HUD header display and streaming media rearview mirror and other products have also begun to be configured slowly. With the development and continuous improvement of the semiconductor system and the interactive chip, the underlying operating system and software of the cockpit entertainment domain is open, the cabin product will continue to be upgraded, and the system will be further integrated. The trend of future cockpit products is a one-piece multi-screen or multi-screen multi-screen, multi-screen high-intelligent extent, while combining new technologies such as Ar / VR virtual technology, multi-mode identification control technology and air holographic imaging. Interactive scenes and provide a variety of driving experience.

In the future, the car will bring people to the extension of the other space, and the car will become an important link and components that connect users to interconnect with other scenes. Correspondingly, the cabin domain controller will be highly integrated towards the function of the cabin. It is recommended to focus on enterprises that are expected to be a critical supplier in full stack of capabilities in this area. In addition, evolution from smart cockpit to automatic driving is also the focus of long-term attention.

Intelligent chassis wire control system

With the rapid development of automotive electricity and intelligence, the transmission system of the chassis system needs to be in accordance with electricity-based thin chassis demand, and the automatic driving brought by intelligent will lead the transformation of the steering system and the brake system. Come new market demand.

For L3 and above, the automatic driving vehicle, part or full process will be separated from the driver’s control, so the automatic driving control system requires accurate control, high reliability, only line control steering (Steering By Wire, SBW) can meet the requirements . Online control movement, Bosch, the mainland has accelerated capacity expansion in China. With the accelerated penetration of L3 + automatic driving, the line controls the macholds or will usher in high-speed growth with the sales of new energy vehicles and Tier1 production capacity.

Figure | 2019 and 2023 chart electronic product market space measurement (100 million yuan)

Source: FAW Investment Research Center, car Baizhicu finishing

From the perspective of industrial investment, industrial investment for wire control system is a better period of time, and the relative valuation is relatively valued in the future. The following trends will be presented in the future of the smart chassis: 1. Intelligent, electric process accelerator line control actuator penetration; 2. Enterprise’s sustainable iterative ability is key to competition; 3. Domestic alternative demand will continue to be enhanced.

At present, a group of smart chassis research and development enterprises have emerged, such as the listed companies such as Betley, Wanan Technology, Tu Pu Group, Hua Domain Automobile, etc., are gradually created with their own core competitiveness, most of the line control execution Institutional R & D Enterprises are based on the development of traditional implementation institutions. A group of startups in recent years also aim at high-end products in the field and have gained concern by investment agencies.

Car information security

With the further interconnection of the automobile and external network, the vehicle passes through the wireless terminal directly to the external communication, more and more functions, the external interface has increased through wireless remote or short-range access, which adds new security hazards to vehicles. On the basis of the original vehicle safety function, the importance of vehicle information security issues is more high.

The transformation of the automobile E / E architecture and the introduction of the sensor, the introduction of the car network, the security of the network information is no longer just a vehicle Security Safety program, and the vehicle will increase the vehicle if the error is performed by the error data, which will increase the vehicle. Safety risk.

The current vehicle information security is still in its infancy, lagging behind the rapid development of the car network, causing the hidden dangers of the safety problem. The net information security involves more functions, and its core is to protect the control of vehicle equipment. For investors, it is possible to explore the fields that are important and not fully concerned. In addition, as a hardware basis of building a trunk network, the hardware module such as the vehicle safety chip is worthy of focus.

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